Exploring the difference between a wise crowd of independent thinkers and a dangerous crowd that shares information. Highlighting the financial success of Ken Griffin in the meme stock craze. Discussing Wall Street's profitability and cautioning against blindly following the wisdom of crowds. Previewing topics of consumer spending, bond yields, stock prices, utilities, diversification, and mystery charts. Fashion choices, live podcast announcement, and sponsor recommendation. Stock market performance, bottoming process, and the impact of rising interest rates. Market outlook, September weakness, and historical fourth quarter performance. The underperformance and negative sentiment surrounding utilities stocks. The viral meeting involving Lindy Ocarino, Twitter's debt, and European stock outperformance. Podcast updates, wealth management advertisement, and a podcast recommendation.
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Quick takeaways
Online crowds turning into like-minded mobs can create dangerous situations in meme stock trading and other areas on the internet.
The real winners in the meme stock craze are hedge funds and market makers who profited immensely.
Rising interest rates are impacting various sectors and companies, increasing interest costs and shifting investment preferences towards bonds.
Deep dives
Why the Wisdom of Crowds Doesn't Apply to Meme Stock Craze
The podcast discusses why the wisdom of crowds does not apply to the meme stock craze. While many believe that the large number of meme traders should lead to wise pricing of stocks, it doesn't work that way. The speaker explains that the wisdom of crowds is based on the crowd members being independent of each other. When they start sharing information and coming to a shared conclusion, it can create a dangerous mob mentality. This phenomenon is seen in meme stock trading, politics, and other areas on the internet where independent thinkers turn into a like-minded mob.
The Financial Consequences of the Meme Stock Craze
The podcast explores the financial consequences of the meme stock craze. While the meme stock traders may have gained attention and media coverage, the podcast emphasizes that the real winners in this situation are the antagonists, such as hedge funds and market makers. The speaker reveals that the meme stock craze led to some of the most profitable market making activity ever seen. Hedge fund managers, like Ken Griffin, made billions of dollars during this period, while meme stock traders' financial fortunes remain uncertain.
The Impact of Rising Interest Rates
The podcast delves into the impact of rising interest rates on different sectors and companies. It highlights that higher interest rates are starting to have an effect on companies like Petco and Hanes Brands, leading to increased interest costs and potential financial strain. Additionally, the podcast explores how rising rates have impacted different parts of the market, particularly small-cap stocks and emerging markets. It also mentions the low dividend yields in comparison to treasury yields, indicating that bonds are becoming more attractive for investors. The podcast points out that bonds have acted differently in this market compared to historical patterns, with their prices going lower instead of offering diversification benefits during stock market downturns.
Performance of High-Priced Stocks vs. Low-Priced Stocks
High-priced stocks have underperformed, with the median return for the most expensive decile down 18%, while low-priced stocks are up 2-3%. Rising rates have negatively impacted the longest duration assets in the portfolio.
Utility Companies Struggle
Utility companies are facing significant challenges, with many stocks in the S&P 500 utility index hitting 52-week lows. The sector is experiencing negative underperformance, and the current yield for the index is 3.77%. This situation may present both risks and opportunities for investors.
Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about the biggest topics in investing and finance! On this show they discuss: rising rates, the utilities crash, what Twitter/X is worth, consumer spending, and much more!
Thanks to Birddogs for sponsoring this episode! Visit https://www.birddogs.com/THOUGHTS for a free white-tech dad hat with every purchase!
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