“The Ayatollah has no clothes” - with Rich Goldberg and Richard Fontaine
Oct 29, 2024
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Rich Goldberg, a senior advisor specializing in Iranian weapons of mass destruction, and Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for New American Security, share powerful insights on Iran's military capabilities and the recent Israeli operations. They discuss the strategic implications of Israel's military actions, particularly against Iran's air defense, and the ongoing challenges posed by Iran's nuclear advancements. The conversation highlights the evolving geopolitical dynamics, including U.S. strategies and shifting alliances with Saudi Arabia, amidst rising tensions.
Israel's recent air operations have severely weakened Iran's air defense, enhancing Israeli military freedom and reshaping regional power dynamics.
The strikes aim to deter Iranian aggression while potentially forcing Tehran to reassess its offensive strategies amid an evolving threat landscape.
Internal pressures in Iran may delay a strong response to the strikes, risking further erosion of the regime's credibility domestically and internationally.
Deep dives
The Vulnerability of Iran's Air Defense
The Israeli Air Force's recent military operation has significantly diminished Iran's air defense capabilities, specifically its S-300 systems, which were critical for defending against aerial threats. With these systems compromised, Israel can conduct airstrikes with little to no risk of interception, enhancing its strategic positioning in the region. This change not only impacts Israel's operational freedom but also alters the dynamics for the U.S. and its allies, reshaping potential military contingencies. As a result, Tehran is now more exposed and vulnerable than ever, undermining its regional deterrent capabilities.
Strategic Objectives Behind Israeli Action
The Israeli operation serves dual objectives, aiming for both immediate deterrence against Iranian aggression and longer-term strategic gains concerning Iran's nuclear program. By targeting air defense assets and other key military structures in Iran, Israel seeks to prevent further Iranian attacks while simultaneously sending a message regarding its military strength. The successful execution of these strikes has left Iran in a precarious position, potentially forcing a reevaluation of its offensive capabilities. With a diminished ability to retaliate, Tehran may reconsider its escalation strategies in the near term.
Iran's Dilemma in Response
Iran finds itself in a compromising position following the Israeli strikes, facing pressure internally to retaliate while simultaneously feeling the risks associated with escalating conflict. The leadership, under Ayatollah Khomeini, is caught between the need to maintain their image of strength and the reality of their weakened defensive posture. This uncertainty may lead to a delayed or half-hearted response, as any aggressive action could provoke further Israeli military activity while confirming their vulnerability. The regime's inability to decisively act threatens to undermine its credibility both domestically and regionally.
The Role of External Powers
The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the shifting roles of external powers such as Russia and the United States, particularly in response to Iran's weakened status. While Russia has historically supported Iran with military hardware like the S-300, its involvement may diminish as it focuses on its own conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. This absence could limit Iran's capacity to recover its air defense systems or deter Israeli incursions. Meanwhile, the U.S. appears to maintain a cautious distance, reinforcing its support for Israel while balancing the intricacies of international relations within the region.
Uncertain Future for U.S.-Iran Relations
As regional tensions escalate, the prospects for renewed U.S.-Iran relations remain tenuous, complicated by domestic and international political considerations. The inability of the current U.S. administration to reinstate the JCPOA or formulate a cohesive strategy against Iran's nuclear ambitions exacerbates the uncertainty surrounding future interactions. Additionally, the potential for a new administration in the United States post-election leads to unpredictable shifts in policy. This fluid situation creates an environment ripe for miscalculation, where Iran's nuclear capabilities and regional behavior could become focal points of urgency for any incoming U.S. leadership.
WATCH THE CONVERSATION ON YOUTUBE HERE: https://youtu.be/U0MWxuQG4fs
As we continue to assess the threat FROM Iran and the threat TO Iran, we sat down today with two analysts and former national security officials with different perspectives on what we’ve learned so far and next steps.
Richard Fontaine is CEO of the Center for American Security. He was formerly the top foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain, deputy staff director on the Senate Armed Services Committee, and an official of the U.S. State Department and National Security Council. He currently serves as a member of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board.
Rich Goldberg is a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. From 2019-2020, he served as a Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction for the White House National Security Council. He previously served as a national security staffer in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House. Rich is an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve with military experience on the Joint Staff and in Afghanistan.
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