Merryn Talks Money Rob Arnott on AI Mania: Lessons From the Dot-Com Era
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Nov 3, 2025 
Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, discusses the potential AI bubble, drawing parallels to the dot-com era. He explores extreme valuations and the implications of rising competition, particularly regarding Nvidia and the "Magnificent Seven" companies. Arnott suggests focusing on fundamentals via his RAFI index approach, and highlights opportunities in small caps, the UK, and emerging markets. He also shares his views on Bitcoin and why he holds a small amount of gold as a hedge against uncertainty.
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AI Mirrors Dot‑Com Dynamics
- AI mirrors the dot‑com cycle: genuine transformative tech plus frothy valuations and extreme concentration.
- Early leaders may not remain dominant as competition and slower adoption erode advantages.
Early Dominance Rarely Guarantees Long‑Term Leadership
- Many 2000 tech leaders failed to outperform the market over long horizons despite early dominance.
- Rapid adoption expectations often slow, producing long delays before market leadership proves durable.
Power And Regulation Constrain AI Growth
- AI growth faces real-world constraints like power, regulation and ethics that limit runaway expansion.
- Infrastructure and grid upgrades needed for projected AI power use are unlikely on the aggressive timetables cited.
