Experts discuss the idea of an Asian NATO as a counterbalance to China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The podcast explores the purpose of the Quad in countering China's power, the challenges of implementing an economic Article 5, the risks of a defense pact in Asia, and the potential gains and losses of an Asian NATO.
Increasing cooperation among countries in the Asia-Pacific region is driven by China's behavior and its assertiveness, rather than a proactive push for an Asian NATO.
The Quad's focus on security cooperation has been more prominent than its economic engagement, limiting its potential impact and effectiveness in countering China's influence in the region.
Deep dives
The concept of an Asian NATO: forging partnerships to counterbalance China
In the podcast episode, the concept of an Asian NATO is explored as nations like Japan, Australia, India, and the United States forge unprecedented partnerships to safeguard regional stability and counterbalance China's rising influence. The idea of an Asian NATO is not currently advocated as it would foreclose cooperative future with China and indicates a shift from the existing hub and spoke system of bilateral alliances in the region. Collaborative initiatives such as the Quad and AUKUS demonstrate a pattern of increasing cooperation among these countries in response to China's influence. However, economic cooperation remains a challenge, and the absence of a strong economic framework limits the potential for an Asian NATO. The economic reliance on China poses a major obstacle for a collective defense pact, and existing partnerships focus more on security and military cooperation rather than economic integration. Moreover, the podcast highlights that China's actions and assertiveness in the region have played a significant role in prompting these alliances, emphasizing that an Asian NATO would be a response driven by China's behavior.
The Quad: seeking to roll back China's influence in the Indo-Pacific
The podcast delves into the Quad, a multilateral grouping comprising the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. The Quad aims to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region through three pillars: stability (security), development, and prosperity. So far, the focus has primarily been on security cooperation, evidenced by joint military exercises such as Malabar. However, the development and prosperity aspect has been lagging, with criticisms that the Quad lacks economic substance. While the Quad provides non-military public goods such as COVID-19 vaccines and maritime security, the economic dimension remains a challenge. The absence of robust economic engagement with China and the US's withdrawal from trade agreements have limited the Quad's potential impact. Despite discussions about broadening the Quad, such as including South Korea, economic considerations and the divergence of interests within the Quad itself pose challenges to expanding the alliance.
The significance of economic issues and China's response
The podcast addresses the role of economic issues in the context of China's relationships with the US and its allies in Asia. China has historically leveraged economic factors to shape its global relationships. However, the US's withdrawal from economic agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the lack of a clear economic strategy in the region have limited its influence. The podcast distinguishes between trade policy and providing non-military public goods, highlighting the Quad's role in areas like healthcare, infrastructure, maritime security, and COVID-19 vaccine distribution. However, it acknowledges that the economic side of the Quad's engagement with China lags behind, leading to skepticism among some Southeast Asian countries. China's coercive tactics, such as embargoes and boycotts, have further complicated economic interactions. Despite the challenges, the Quad's non-military contributions provide an alternative approach to shaping regional dynamics, particularly in response to China's economic coercion.
The risks and complexities of a collective defense pact in Asia
The potential formation of an Asian NATO or a collective defense pact in Asia is discussed, highlighting both the benefits and risks associated with such a move. On the positive side, a defense pact would enhance deterrence and present a stronger collective front against any aggression from China. However, the podcast acknowledges the risks involved, particularly the potential for escalating tensions and conflict if China were to react violently or pre-emptively to such a pact. The economic reliance on China poses additional challenges, with countries like the US, Australia, and Japan having substantial economic ties that could be jeopardized in the event of a defense pact. Moreover, the podcast underscores the importance of maintaining a steady hand, consistent dialogue, and transparency with China to avoid miscalculations and miscommunications that could lead to unintended consequences. The ultimate loser in the situation would likely be China, as its actions have contributed to the collapse of trust and increased hedging among other countries, ultimately isolating China from potential allies and leaving it with a weaker international standing.
The Asia-Pacific region is witnessing a seismic shift in power dynamics as nations like Japan, Australia, and the US forge a game-changing partnership to counter China's influence. The big question: could this lead to a new NATO for the Pacific? And what would that mean? Experts Michael Green and Karl Friedhoff dissect the motives, strategies, and potential outcomes.