The hosts discuss skepticism towards AI hype and the longevity of unprofitable software companies. They also explore the advantages of being in Silicon Valley for tech companies. The podcast introduces expectations investing and its application in valuing companies, emphasizing the importance of understanding stock prices, value drivers, and assumptions in the market.
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Quick takeaways
Investors should be skeptical of overspending on AI without considering profitability and long-term viability.
When analyzing companies in the AI industry, it is important to discount the AI aspect and focus on overall business growth and market positioning.
Deep dives
The Risk of an AI Bubble and Overspending
The podcast discusses the potential risks of overspending and the formation of an AI bubble in the business-facing AI industry. The concern is that companies might feel pressured to spend heavily on AI services, either as buyers or sellers, without considering the actual profitability or long-term viability of these investments. It is suggested that a pop-able bubble could occur if the actual profits fail to materialize, leading to a correction in stock prices. However, it is also acknowledged that the current state of profitability and market cycle is uncertain.
Asana's AI Aspirations and Move Up Market
The podcast highlights Asana, a work productivity platform with aspirations in AI. Asana utilizes AI to enhance work productivity through its 'work graph' technology, making suggestions and organizing tasks. However, Asana is not primarily an AI company and is currently unprofitable. Investors are advised to discount the AI aspect and focus on Asana's overall business growth and market positioning. The company aims to move up market, targeting larger customers, but there are concerns about the challenges and costs associated with capturing bigger clients.
C3AI's Profitability Question and Focus on Generative AI
The podcast examines C3AI, an early AI enterprise player with notable contracts and partnerships. C3AI's profitability is questioned, especially as they prioritize investing in generative AI instead of achieving gap profitability. This decision has raised concerns about potentially delaying profitability and the need to capture a larger share of the market. While C3AI's AI positioning seems strong, there is uncertainty about the timing and impact of achieving profitability and meeting market expectations.
How can you use a company’s stock price to give you a window into the future?
(00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Reasons for skepticism when it comes to AI hype. - How long a leash unprofitable software companies may have. - If being located in SIlicon Valley is still an advantage for tech companies.
(18:20) Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey break down the basics of expectations investing and give a framework for applying it to individual companies.
Companies discussed: PATH, AI, ASAN, NVDA
Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Ricky Mulvey, Bill Barker, Asit Sharma Producer:Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl