Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Jennifer Kavanagh: Inside Kiev’s Elite - Perspectives on War and Peace
Oct 21, 2025
Jennifer Kavanagh, a Senior Fellow at Defense Priorities and adjunct professor at Georgetown, shares her insights from a recent visit to Kiev. She discusses the city's pressing air-defense shortages and political challenges in negotiating peace. Kavanagh highlights Ukrainian doubts about the durability of any deal, misunderstandings with U.S. intentions, and the importance of non-negotiable demands like EU membership. She also assesses the role of NATO in easing tensions and the implications of demographic changes on Ukraine's military capacity.
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Critical Air-Defense And Manpower Shortages
- Ukraine faces acute air-defense and manpower shortages that will worsen over the coming winter.
- These shortages make civilian infrastructure vulnerable and limit Ukraine's ability to sustain offensive operations.
Durability Doubts Block Negotiations
- Kyiv doubts any ceasefire now would be durable because Russia seeks political control, not just cessation of fighting.
- That belief blocks negotiations since leaders fear a temporary deal leaves Ukraine existentially vulnerable.
Use NATO's Open-Door As A Negotiation Lever
- The West can reduce Ukraine's concessions by formally closing NATO's open door and ruling out future expansion.
- Doing so would ease Russian demands and make a political settlement more attainable.