Discussion on the changing political landscape and the potential for a Trump vs. Biden rematch in the 2024 election. Analysis of battleground states and factors influencing the outcome. The impact of third-party candidates and protest votes. Factors to consider when selecting a vice president for Trump. Advice on understanding polling data and projecting forward.
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Quick takeaways
Dissatisfaction among younger voters towards President Biden's stance on the Gaza conflict could impact Democratic support in the upcoming election.
Battleground states like Georgia and Arizona, which were not traditionally decisive, now play a significant role in determining election outcomes, favoring Republicans in the current political landscape.
Deep dives
Democrats facing challenges with younger voters
According to polling expert Brent Buchanan, Democrats should be concerned about the dissatisfaction among younger voters towards President Biden, particularly regarding his stance on the Gaza conflict. Younger voters have traditionally been a crucial demographic for Democrats in presidential elections, but their dissatisfaction could impact their support. Buchanan suggests that Republicans, who generally have a stronger dissatisfaction with the direction the country is heading, have an advantage in the current political landscape.
Shifts in battleground states
The podcast highlights how the battleground states that determine electoral college victories have changed over recent years. States like Georgia and Arizona, which were not traditionally considered decisive, now play a significant role in the election outcomes. Specifically, Trump is seen as stronger in Georgia due to Biden's weakness rather than Trump's strength. Additionally, Arizona is performing better for Republicans compared to 2020. The mentioned states, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, will be crucial for both Trump and Biden's chances in the 2024 election.
The impact of third-party candidates
Buchanan predicts that third-party candidates, like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., will have a larger impact in the 2024 election than in previous years. He believes that while these candidates may not receive significant ballot share, they will attract protest votes from individuals who are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden. Buchanan emphasizes that in a race between two highly defined candidates like Trump and Biden, the presence of third-party candidates can help Trump. However, he expects the impact to fluctuate over the next months as disaffected voters shift their preferences based on the candidates' actions and positions.
“Democrats are in a hole,” that’s according to Cygnal pollster Brent Buchanan. But he also warns polling will change. We discuss all the factors affecting presidential polling in the months leading up to the November election. Get the facts first on Morning Wire.
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