John Marcus, a senior higher education reporter at the Hechinger Report, and Catherine Bond-Hill, an economist and former president of Vassar College, dive into the pressing college affordability crisis. They discuss the largest graduating class set for 2025 amidst declining enrollment due to lower birth rates. The duo emphasizes the financial strains on families, particularly rising housing costs exceeding tuition fees. They also explore innovative solutions like community college pathways to help alleviate the burden and ensure accessible education for future students.
The rising costs of college, including tuition and living expenses, significantly burden families, prompting alternative strategies like community college enrollment.
A significant demographic shift is expected to cause a dramatic decline in college enrollment, threatening the viability of many higher education institutions.
Deep dives
College Costs and Payment Strategies
The rising costs associated with attending college, particularly room and board, have become a significant burden for families. With in-state tuition averaging around $6,000 per year, the combined total cost for students can reach approximately $27,000 or more when including housing and living expenses. Parents, like Claire from Maryland, express the necessity of financial planning, often resorting to scholarships and alternative funding sources to alleviate these costs. A prevalent strategy includes starting with community college to reduce expenditures before transferring to a four-year institution, enabling families to save significantly on education costs.
Demographic Cliff Impact on Enrollment
A dramatic decline in college enrollment is anticipated due to what experts term a 'demographic cliff,' resulting from lower birth rates following the 2008 recession. As large graduating classes of high school seniors diminish post-2025, many institutions are already struggling with financial viability, affecting their operations and programs. Reports indicate that nearly one college closes per week, emphasizing the urgent need for these universities to adapt or face closure. This shrinking pool of prospective students will challenge the long-standing link between higher education and career opportunities in the evolving labor market.
Challenges of Perceived Value of a Degree
There's an increasing public skepticism regarding the value of college degrees as many graduates struggle to justify the high costs of their education versus potential earnings. While it is still true that college graduates typically earn significantly more over their lifetimes compared to non-graduates, the burden of student debt complicates this narrative. The risk of pursuing higher education without guaranteed job placement has led some to opt for trade programs that provide quicker, more lucrative returns. Consequently, many individuals express disillusionment, questioning whether traditional college pathways align with their financial realities and career aspirations.
The Future of Higher Education Institutions
The anticipated decline in college enrollment raises critical questions about the operational viability of countless higher education institutions, especially those dependent on tuition revenue. Many schools are actively evaluating how to survive this demographic shift, while also attempting to retain their academic standards amid shrinking student bodies. Innovative strategies are needed to attract older students who may have left college without completing their degrees, as well as leveraging international student enrollment. However, challenges persist in effectively recruiting and supporting these diverse populations, complicating efforts to sustain enrollment.
The graduating class of 2025 is the largest the country has ever seen — around 3.9 million students. That's according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.
And it'll likely be the largest group for a while.
That's because starting next school year, the number of high school seniors is expected to drop sharply. That's partly due to low birth rates connected to the 2008 recession.
We discuss how colleges and universities are grappling with declining enrollment.