Lessons In Urban Warfare, From Syria to Taiwan | John Spencer
Dec 16, 2024
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John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point, dives deep into the dynamics of urban combat. He discusses the historical evolution and modern strategies of urban warfare, examining conflicts in Syria and Gaza. Spencer emphasizes how willpower can outweigh numerical strength, and critiques common misconceptions about military tactics. He explores potential scenarios for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and strategies to counter Mexican cartels, highlighting the complexities of defending urban areas in today's geopolitical landscape.
Urban warfare has evolved significantly, driven by global urbanization, necessitating specialized tactics and training for combat in cities.
The ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine illustrate how civilian populations and non-state actors complicate military operations and strategies.
Counterinsurgency efforts in regions like Mexico highlight the importance of legitimate governance and community trust in combating insurgent influences.
Deep dives
The Evolution of Urban Warfare
Urban warfare has undergone significant evolution, adapting to varied environments and tactics throughout history. Lessons from historical battles demonstrate that cities have always been crucial strategic objectives in warfare, as seen from the Peloponnesian War to World War II. The recent shift towards urban combat has been largely influenced by global urbanization, with over half of the world’s population now living in urban areas. As a result, militaries are increasingly required to prepare for and engage in combat within cities, leading to the development of specialized tactics and training specifically designed for urban scenarios.
Civilian Populations and Modern Warfare
Modern warfare often involves the complex interaction between military forces and civilian populations, especially in urban environments. Insurgent groups, such as Hamas, have exploited civilian populations by using them as shields against attackers, complicating military operations for nations like Israel. This situation creates moral and operational dilemmas, as attacking these insurgents may inadvertently harm civilians, leading to international scrutiny. Such scenarios underscore the importance of understanding how non-state actors manipulate urban landscapes to their advantage while challenging conventional military strategies.
Lessons from the Ukraine War
The recent conflict in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of the complexities of urban warfare and the resilience of the civilian response. Unlike traditional battlefields, Ukrainian forces effectively relied on civilian support and guerrilla tactics to resist a larger invading force. The transformations in urban combat dynamics, which saw improvised defenses and roadblocks established by citizens, showcased the critical role of population engagement in military success. This experience emphasized that military triumph is not solely determined by force size but rather by the resolve and will of the people involved.
Challenges in the Gaza Conflict
The situation in Gaza represents a unique case of urban warfare characterized by a densely populated area fortified by advanced military infrastructure from Hamas. This complexity arises from a 20-year preparation by Hamas, involving the creation of extensive tunnels and utilizing civilian structures for military purposes. The difficulty for Israel in addressing this conflict lies in balancing military objectives with the humanitarian implications of civilian casualties. Observers highlight the unprecedented challenge of conducting military operations in an environment where the enemy is embedded within the civilian populace and has intentionally set the stage for such conflict.
Counterinsurgency and Future Conflicts
Looking ahead, the lessons drawn from both Mexico's cartel-related violence and the broader dynamics of urban warfare are critical to understanding future conflicts. The potential for an insurgency in Mexico raises questions about government legitimacy and the role of external forces in providing support. Effective counterinsurgency operations require a legitimate government that can gain the trust of its citizens amidst existing corruption and instability. Strategies must focus on empowering local forces and fostering cooperation with the civilian population to achieve long-term stability and curb the influence of insurgent groups.
John Spencer is the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. He joined Rep. Crenshaw to explore the historical evolution of urban combat and analyze modern strategies for conquering and defending cities. John discusses how urban warfare is playing out in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Ukraine. And he envisions the most likely scenarios for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, along with potential U.S.-Mexico counterinsurgency efforts against the cartels.
• The evolution of urban warfare • Regime change and chaos in Syria • Why willpower often trumps raw numbers • Hezbollah’s decimation and its implications • Israeli airstrikes in post-Assad Syria • “The way you take a city is psychologically.” • Russia’s miscalculation in Kiev and Ukraine’s resistance • How Gaza’s conflict was unlike any other • Why banning missiles could result in more civilian casualties • Debunking the “Zero Dark Thirty” Fallacy • “Is that Batman??” • Why the pager operation wouldn’t have worked in Gaza • More common misconceptions: The Abacus, Vampire, and Peace Table Fallacies • Taiwan’s defenses and civilian preparation for invasion • U.S.-Mexico counterinsurgency strategies to combat cartels
John Spencer currently serves as the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point, Co-Director of the Urban Warfare Project, and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast. He also serves as the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies with the Madison Policy Forum, a New York based think-tank. He is a founding member of the International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare.
He is the author of three books: Understanding Urban Warfare, (Howgate Publishing, 2022), Connected Soldiers: Life, Leadership, and Social Connections in Modern War (Potomac Books, 2022; Winner of the 2023 Gold Medal Award, Best Military History Memoir, Military Writers Society of America), The Mini-Manual for the Urban Defender (John Spencer, 2022).
