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Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews
2/8/24 Lyle Goldstein on Why He Thinks War Over Taiwan is Alarmingly Likely
Feb 16, 2024
Guest Lyle Goldstein, military expert, discusses the likelihood of war over Taiwan, highlighting recent U.S. military deployment to Taiwanese-controlled islands and growing willingness to consider nuclear weapons. Concerns are raised about irresponsible leadership, China's naval force buildup, and the challenges of limiting and avoiding conflict. The chapter also explores China's nuclear build-up and the complexities of America's involvement in Taiwan.
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Quick takeaways
- The possibility of a conflict between the US and China over Taiwan is estimated to be as high as 30-40% within the next five years, with the recent deployment of US special forces to Jinman Island near the Chinese coast adding to the tension.
- The idea of using nuclear weapons as a limited option in a conflict with China over Taiwan is extremely dangerous, escalatory, and could lead to a catastrophic nuclear war, disregarding the potential devastating consequences.
Deep dives
Potential conflict between the US and China over Taiwan
There is a growing concern over the potential conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan. China is seen as preparing to or eventually moving on Taiwan due to their naval buildup. It is believed that China considers Taiwan as part of its territory and intends to reclaim it. The American government's approach to the issue is seen as irresponsible and could lead to a global catastrophe. There are discussions about the possibility of a limited use of nuclear weapons to achieve goals and deny China's ability to achieve theirs. The risks involved in such a conflict are high, and the US military is not guaranteed to prevail. The probability of a conflict within the next five years is estimated to be as high as 30-40%, with the chance of an all-out invasion being less than 10%. The recent deployment of US special forces to Jinman Island near the Chinese coast has sparked additional tension. The island's residents are not in favor of such a deployment and could further escalate the situation.
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