The Global Story If China attacked Taiwan, what would Trump do?
Oct 27, 2025
James Crabtree, a geopolitical analyst with expertise in Asia, dives into the critical topic of Taiwan and its implications amidst Trump's Asia trip. He explains Taiwan's historical context and its struggle for international recognition. Crabtree discusses the complexities of U.S. policy, weighing the internal debates on whether to defend Taiwan against China's ambitions. He also touches on rising defense spending in Taiwan and the potential consequences if the U.S. were to abandon support, painting a tense diplomatic landscape.
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Taiwan's Ambiguous Statehood
- Taiwan sits in limbo: it functions like an independent state but cannot formally declare independence without risking Chinese military action.
- This unresolved status stems from the 1949 civil war when the Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan after losing to Mao's communists.
The Logic Of Strategic Ambiguity
- The US practices 'strategic ambiguity' to deter China while discouraging Taiwan from provoking Beijing.
- Ambiguity aims to prevent rash moves by making both sides uncertain about US intervention.
Pelosi Visit Provoked Large Military Response
- Nancy Pelosi's 2022 surprise visit to Taiwan triggered large-scale Chinese military exercises around the island.
- China fired missiles and encircled Taiwan to signal displeasure and to practice coercive tactics.
