Biotech Hangout welcomes biotech analysts Josh Schimmer, Tim Opler, Chris Garabedian, Dawn Bell, and guest host Eric Schmidt. They cover topics such as the JPM year in review, XBI performance, Abbvie's acquisition of Cerevel, big GLP-1 deal from Roche and Carmot, AstraZeneca/IRA case, three big investors days from J&J, Sanofi and Neurocrine Biosciences, CVS's drug coverage update, and Eyepoint Pharmaceutical's wet AMD data.
Biotech stocks in 2023 had mixed performance with financial updates driving the biggest gains and positive events failing to maintain momentum.
Macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rates have influenced the biotech sector, but experts believe these issues are being resolved, indicating bullishness for the industry.
The Avy-Seravalle deal, worth $9 billion, made before completing pivotal studies, raises questions about Avy's motives and could shape future M&A trends in the biotech space.
Deep dives
JPM Year in Review and Market Performance
Overall, the performance of biotech stocks in 2023 was relatively flat, with regulatory decisions and clinical readouts showing slightly negative performance and financial updates showing the biggest pop. Positive events did not result in continued momentum, and investors did not anticipate events ahead of time. Big events, such as BD announcements, saw a significant pop after the announcement. However, it is important to note that this analysis is a look back at 2023 and may not reflect historical trends.
Macro Perspective on Biotech
The macro perspective on biotech shows that the sector has been heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates. Job openings shrinking and recent inflation numbers close to the Fed's target have had an impact on the biotech market. However, experts believe that these factors are being resolved, which is bullish for the biotech sector.
Implications of Avy-Seravalle Deal
The Avy-Seravalle deal, worth nearly $9 billion, surprised many as it was made before the completion of pivotal studies. The deal raises questions about why Avy decided to make the acquisition early and the potential reasoning behind it. Some speculations suggest it could avoid a bidding war or mitigate potential FTC risks. The deal also has implications for other companies in the space, such as Coruna, and could lead to a more polarizing M&A thesis in the future.
Negative Enterprise Value Biotech Companies
There are a significant number of biotech companies trading below their cash value, signaling distress in the industry. While not all companies trading below cash should be valued higher, many are investing the cash into research and development efforts that could drive value in the future. It is crucial to identify companies prioritizing one or two key objectives that will move the needle and focus on those rather than being distracted by unnecessary noise.
Analyst Event Commentary
Several analyst events took place recently. J&J showcased its pipeline and its ambition to be a leader in oncology. Sanofi faced modest stock movement despite highlighting its INI franchise. CVS presented itself as a competitor with a vertically integrated approach, offering healthcare services and drug stores. Nurek and highlighted its expanded internal discovery work and shed light on the potential of Krenesserfant in congenital adrenal hyperplasia.
On this week’s episode of Biotech Hangout, Josh Schimmer, Tim Opler, Chris Garabedian, Dawn Bell and guest host Eric Schmidt, Biotech Analyst, discuss the latest industry news. They cover the JPM year in review, XBI performance, plus Abbvie’s acquisition of Cerevel and the implications for Karuna. They also discuss a big GLP-1 deal from Roche and Carmot, the AstraZeneca/ IRA case and EV negative biotechs. They also talk about three big investors days from J&J, Sanofi and Neurocrine Biosciences, plus CVS’s update on how they will cover drugs, Eyepoint Pharmaceutical’s wet AMD data and much more. *This episode aired on December 8, 2023
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