Trump Can Win (No Seriously) -A Conversation with Sean Trende
Dec 4, 2023
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Political analyst Sean Trende discusses how Trump may win future elections, analyzing polling data, Trump's visibility, and potential strategies for the Biden campaign. The podcast also explores the impact of Trump's trials and predicts outcomes for congressional elections.
Despite controversies, Donald Trump is in a strong position to win the 2024 election.
Trump's upcoming trials could be framed as politically motivated and potentially turn the tide in his favor.
Deep dives
Trump's chances of winning the 2024 election
Despite his controversies and legal troubles, Donald Trump is in a strong position to win the 2024 election. Polls show that he is currently polling higher than he did in 2020 and has a better standing in the national poll averages than ever before. He is leading in key states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, where he previously trailed in the poll averages. While there are reasons to believe his position may change over time, it is important to recognize that he has a real chance of winning.
The impact of Trump's trials on the election
Donald Trump's upcoming trials, particularly the one in Florida, could have significant implications for his chances of winning the 2024 election. While some argue that his convictions would harm his candidacy, it is important to consider the possibility of hung juries or the narrative that Biden's Justice Department tried to unfairly prosecute him. Trump's ability to frame the trials as politically motivated could resonate with portions of the electorate and potentially turn the tide in his favor.
The role of third-party candidates and the congressional elections
The presence of third-party candidates in the upcoming election, such as Kennedy, has raised questions about their potential impact. While third parties tend to fade as the election approaches, there is uncertainty regarding their effect this time due to the weaknesses of the major party candidates. The outcome of the congressional elections is also crucial, with the House likely following the popular vote and the potential for a divided government if Trump wins but Democrats maintain control of the House.
RCP's Sean Trende is back to discuss his latest piece, a reminder that the former President is better positioned to win not just this cycle, but ever. The gang breaks down what it means to say "Trump can win," and why it draws such a heated response.
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