What Ammo Market Data Says About Tariff Impacts So Far (ft. Black Basin Outdoors)

This week, we're starting to see the effects of President Trump's tariffs on the ammo market.

To discuss the real-world pricing data we have Nathaniel Boos of Black Basin Outdoors on the show. Black Basin is an online ammo dealer, but it also publishes the most comprehensive pricing data on the internet. From that data Boos said we can already seen some signs of what's happening.

And the results are interesting.

For the most popular rounds, such as 9mm or 5.56 NATO, prices haven't moved very much overall. But under that steady stream are some fascinating undercurrents. As imports have become more expensive under the 10 percent tariff, American brands have largely chosen to reduce prices in an effort to retake marketshare--something that's evened pricing out in most sectors.

However, Boos said Black Basin has already seen some overseas suppliers simply stop shipping product into the US. He said part of the reason prices haven't shot up across the board yet is that the market has a glut of supply following the 2024 election. He warned prices could increase once supply dwindles and demand picks back up, likely in the Fall.

Boos argued the tariffs could end up limiting consumer options and pushing up prices over time, even eliminating supply of some less popular rounds. But in the short term, they've helped American ammo makers recapture market share while imposing little monetary pain on consumers--an outcome tariff supporters are aiming at.