Trade economist Shanella Rajanayagam discusses the reconfiguration of global supply chains, exploring topics like reshoring, China's evolving role in trade, and the impact of Gulf disruptions on container freight rates and global markets.
Hyperglobalisation boosted income growth in emerging markets through trade policy liberalisation and technological advancements.
Rising labor costs in China drove supply chain relocations to countries like Mexico, reshaping global trade patterns.
Deep dives
Hyperglobalisation Era: Impact on Trade Growth and Income
During the hyperglobalisation era from 1992 to 2008, trade outpaced GDP growth significantly, boosting income growth in emerging markets. This period saw enhanced productivity due to trade policy liberalisation and technological advancements, enabling global access to goods at lower prices. The evolution towards changing trade shifts, including reshoring, relocating, and near-shoring, reflects a trend of de-risking supply chains from mainland China.
China's Evolving Role in Global Trade and Shift of Supply Chains
China's substantial rise in global trade, from 0.9% to 14% of world exports, highlights its pivotal role in international commerce. Rising labor costs in China have prompted shifts towards higher value-added activities and supply chain relocations to countries like Mexico. Mexico, benefiting from near-shoring trends, surpassed China as the US's top import partner, emphasizing the changing dynamics in global trade patterns.
Global Initiatives and Business Perspectives on Relocating Production
Various countries, including the US, European Union, and India, have adopted industrial policies to incentivize the relocation of production, especially in sectors like electronics and semiconductors. Business surveys indicate increased awareness of geopolitical risks among Western companies operating in China, leading to considerations of relocating investments to Southeast Asia and closer to home. Despite evolving trade shifts, supply chains remain globally interconnected, requiring careful evaluation of factors influencing production relocations.
Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist, looks at how supply chains are reconfiguring globally and assesses the extent to which countries are moving production closer to home.
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Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/FNpqB6N