Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen return with 10 big predictions for 2026.

From the case for $1M BTC (and why the classic four-year cycle may be dead) to a world where ETFs soak up more than 100% of new BTC/ETH/SOL supply.

We get into Bitcoin volatility vs. mega-cap tech, crypto equities vs. tech equities, and why Polymarket could smash past its 2024 election-era highs.

Plus: stablecoins as an “escape valve” that emerging economies may blame for currency stress, on-chain also known as “ETFs 2.0,” and how the Clarity Act could be the starter’s gun for ETH and SOL to run.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Last Year Predictions

13:12 1. Bitcoin Breaks 4-Year Cycle

16:19 2. BTC Less Volatile Than NVDA

22:09 3. ETFs Purchasing New Supply of Crypto

30:02 4. Crypto Equities Outperforming Equities

37:23 5. Prediction Markets All-Time Highs

42:50 6. Stablecons Destabilizing Currencies

48:16 7. Onchain Vaults Doubling in AUM

52:56 8. Clarity Act Triggering ETH & Sol All-Time Highs

56:40 9. Ivy League Endowments Investing in Crypto

58:49 10. 100+ Crypto ETPs Launching

1:01:14 Bitwise Announcement

1:04:08 Bonus. Bitcoin Equity Correlation Falling

1:07:29 Progress in 2025

1:10:48 Cross-Generational Wealth Transfer?

1:13:02 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers

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RESOURCES

Matt Hougan

https://x.com/Matt_Hougan

Ryan Rasmussen

https://x.com/RasterlyRock

Bitwise

https://bitwiseinvestments.com/

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:

https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

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