[REPLAY] Evan Tindell (Bireme Capital): The Psychology of Value Investing (Plus poker and tennis)
Dec 6, 2024
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Evan Tindell, the mastermind behind Bireme Capital and a former professional poker player, discusses the intriguing intersections of investor psychology and value investing. He shares insights on shorting Costco, betting heavily on META, and the importance of position sizing. Tindell reflects on his poker background, linking its strategies to identifying undervalued stocks. The conversation also covers SOTP valuation, Japanese small caps, and the nuances of balancing research time with investment opportunities. Prepare for a compelling blend of finance and cognitive insight!
Evan Tindell emphasizes the importance of investor psychology, particularly in managing emotions during market downturns for long-term success.
The discussion highlights the cyclical nature of value investing and the significance of identifying mispriced stocks due to cognitive biases.
Evan points out emerging investment opportunities in Japanese small-cap stocks driven by evolving corporate governance and an increasing focus on shareholder value.
Deep dives
Aim for Consistent Returns and Learning
The central focus of the discussion revolves around the pursuit of high risk-adjusted returns in investing. The participants express a commitment to consistently learning from their experiences and evolving as investors. This dedication to improvement, paired with an enjoyable approach to investing, underscores their philosophy. As a result, they have achieved the highest retention rates within their investing service, signifying the effectiveness of their strategies.
Insights from Evan's Investing Journey
Evan shares his personal journey into investing, which began after making money through poker. He emphasizes that poker shares similarities with investing, as both require understanding risk, reward, and the math behind decision-making. Guided by a college friend, he delved into value investing, aligning the theoretical framework of both poker and investing to enhance his understanding. This unique transition laid the foundation for his subsequent success at Byreme Capital.
Navigating Value and Growth in Investing
Evan discusses the cyclical nature of value investing, noting that while statistical value may seem diminished at times, it can reemerge as a powerful strategy. He emphasizes the importance of identifying unique investment opportunities where cognitive biases lead the market to misprice stocks. The conversation touches on the delicate balance between fundamental analysis and quantitative evaluation, as he navigates the complex dynamic of buying cheap stocks in a competitive landscape. This approach combines statistical data with qualitative insights to enhance the decision-making process.
The Psychology of Investing
The dialogue highlights the psychological aspects influencing investor behavior, particularly during market downturns. Maintaining a portfolio's overall performance allows investors to endure individual stock declines without losing confidence. The importance of managing one's emotions and biases during the investing journey is underscored, as these factors can significantly impact decision-making. Recognizing the need for mental discipline and strategic thinking becomes crucial for long-term success in investing.
Opportunities in Japanese Small Caps
The conversation shifts to the emerging investment opportunities in Japanese small-cap stocks, driven by changes in corporate governance and a focus on returning cash to shareholders. The participants acknowledge the historical hesitance of Japanese firms to prioritize shareholder value, yet emphasize the shift in cultural attitudes towards enhancing investor returns. By targeting these undervalued companies with significant cash reserves, they identify a fertile ground for potential growth over the next few years. This strategic focus on Japan presents an exciting avenue for diversifying investment portfolios amidst global trends.
Evan Tindell runs Bireme Capital, a long/short value investment fund.
I loved this episode. We spent over an hour discussing:
Investor psychology
Shorting Costco
Lessons from being a professional poker player
Position sizing
Betting big on META during its Hate Day
SOTP valuation stories (Bollore & Vivendi)
Japanese value stocks
Allocating time
And more!
This was one of the most wide-ranging conversations I've had in a while, and I loved it.
If you like what you heard, follow Evan on Twitter @evantindell.
Finally, a big thanks to our sponsors for making this episode happen.
Mitimco
This episode is brought to you by MIT Investment Management Company, also known as MITIMCo, the investment office of MIT. Each year, MITIMCo invests in a handful of new emerging managers who it believes can earn exceptional long-term returns in support of MIT's mission. To help the emerging manager community more broadly, they created emergingmanagers.org, a website for emerging manager stockpickers.
I highly recommend the site for those looking to start a stock-picking fund or just learning about how others have done it. You'll find essays and interviews by successful emerging managers, service providers used by MIT's own managers, essays MITIMCo has written for emerging managers, and more!
TIKR
TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR every day in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.
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