Bloomberg Talks Julia Pollack Talks Jobs
Dec 16, 2025
Julia Pollack, Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, provides keen insights into the current job market. She clarifies the recent rise in unemployment isn't alarming, attributing it to temporary federal changes. Pollack discusses trends in youth unemployment and links Fed policy to job growth. With a forecast of stronger economic growth by 2026, she highlights AI's role in increasing demand for skilled workers and emphasizes the need for modernized labor data to track these changes effectively.
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Temporary Federal Effects Inflated Unemployment
- Two large temporary distortions exaggerated the unemployment rise in the November report: federal workers exiting payrolls and shutdown-driven contractor layoffs.
- Julia Pollack expects the unemployment rate to fall back quickly as those effects reverse.
Rates Hurt Marginal Workers Most
- Higher interest rates and the Fed's restrictive policy slowed job growth between mid-2022 and mid-2024 and hurt marginal workers most.
- Pollack expects stimulative fiscal policies to help drive a strong labor-market comeback by 2026.
AI Spurs Demand For New And Skilled Roles
- AI demand is creating hiring needs across trades, advanced manufacturing, and AI-skilled roles rather than destroying jobs immediately.
- The department sees AI as increasing demand for certain skills and focuses on preparing workers accordingly.