Marko Papic: Markets Misread Trump - Here’s the Real Risk

30 snips

Apr 9, 2025

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, shares his insights on the geopolitical and economic implications of Trump’s tariff strategies. He argues these tariffs may be more of a negotiation tactic than an outright trade war. Papic highlights the risks of a multipolar world and warns investors about a potential recession with high bond yields. He boldly predicts a 30% decline in the U.S. dollar, urging investors to reassess their strategies in light of shifting global dynamics.

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ANECDOTE

Trump's Negotiation Style

Trump's extreme tariff threats are a negotiation tactic, like his meeting with Zelensky.
It caused initial panic, but resulted in a minor deal, demonstrating his hyperbolic style.

ANECDOTE

The Salesperson's Insight

Marko Papic's business developer correctly predicted other countries' willingness to negotiate despite high tariffs.
This highlights Trump's unique ability to set high prices and still attract interest.

INSIGHT

Pain Tolerance over Power

The US has the strongest hand in trade negotiations, but its willingness to incur pain matters more.
Historical examples like the Vietnam War demonstrate how material power doesn't guarantee victory.

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Are Trump’s dramatic tariffs simply a negotiation tactic rather than an intentional trade war? Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, joins Maggie Lake for a critical conversation explaining why markets have misunderstood Trump’s tariff policy from the beginning and what deeper macroeconomic risks investors should actually be focused on.

Key Topics:

How Trump has used extreme tariff threats as leverage, and why markets repeatedly fall for it
What the rise of a multipolar world means for global markets and U.S. economic power
The hidden but urgent risk investors are overlooking: a recession where bond yields stay high, undermining traditional market safety nets
Why U.S. market outperformance is coming to an end as fiscal stimulus runs dry, exposing vulnerabilities investors aren’t ready for
Marko’s bold call: why the U.S. dollar is at risk of a 30% decline, and how investors should reposition globally

If today’s chaotic headlines have you concerned about markets, geopolitics, or the next big risk for your investments, this conversation is essential viewing.

Chapters:

0:48 - Trump’s Tariff Bombshell: Bluff or Battle Plan?

9:14 - Who Really Has the Upper Hand in a Trade War?

18:24 - Inside Trump’s Mind: What’s the Endgame on Tariffs?

24:32 - The True Meaning of a Multipolar World

30:11 - Investors Beware: Navigating a New Multipolar World

34:28 - Economic Shock Therapy: Trump’s Dangerous Gamble

35:56 - Can the U.S. Treasury Market Survive Trump’s Policies?

40:16 - Fiscal Time Bomb: When Will Markets Revolt?

49:16 - Hunting for Value: Is It Time to Bet on Emerging Markets?

52:24 - Danger Ahead: The Biggest Risk No One Sees Coming

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Subscribe to Marko and Jacob Shapiro’s podcast, Geopolitical Cousins, here: https://podcasts.apple.com/za/podcast/geopolitical-cousins/id1802258017

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