Mediawatch Does bad economic news trump good news?
Stories about surging inflation, successive food price rises and more Kiwis in arrears topped bulletins and filled front pages last year. But recent news about slowing inflation, cheaper food and rising business confidence hasn't had the same impact. How come?
Stories about surging inflation, successive food price rises and more Kiwis in arrears topped bulletins and filled front pages last year. But recent news about slowing inflation, cheaper food and rising business confidence hasn't had the same impact. How come?
"All eyes and ears - of analysts and economists anyway - are on the speech to be given by the chief economist of the Reserve Bank Paul Conway," RNZ's business editor Gyles Beckford said last Tuesday, wrapping up his early business update on Morning Report.
It was more than just analysts and economists eagerly awaiting Conway's address that morning. Some media outlets livestreamed it online too, issuing news alerts beforehand.
The media don't usually pump up an economist on a webinar. Why now?
"People are waiting to hear if there's any signal of a change of mood from the unexpectedly hawkish tone of the RBNZ in November. That might point to an earlier-than-expected start for cutting (interest) rates," Beckford explained.
But when he returned for the later update after 8.30, Morning Report co-host Corin Dann pointed out there are months between decisions on the official cash rate - and nothing would happen in a hurry.
"There are three months between meetings of the Reserve Bank. That is really quite impractical to say the least. In fact, it's downright stupid," Beckford replied.
However, even the hint of a non-imminent change clearly excited news editors.
Last year, data revealing stubbornly high inflation and rising food prices seemed to be topping the bulletins whenever it came out - often with bleak headlines about the "cost of living crisis".
Every month, reports from New Zealand's largest credit database Centrix tallying debts and mortgages in arrears prompted alarming stories about a possible surge in mortgagee sales.
The National Party - then in opposition - even warned "a mortgage bomb" could blow up the economy if interest rates remained high.
Supermarkets kicked off a blame-game with stats showing their suppliers were fuelling rising prices - rather than their own profits. That bitter row was widely reported.
It was worrying stuff. But what happens when the data is better?
Similar stories when supermarkets' supplier cost growth hit the lowest point for 18 months in December were harder to find. …