Sinica Podcast

The Ukrainian Factor in China's Strategy: a roundtable

Feb 29, 2024

Discussions cover Chinese views on Ukraine, diplomatic efforts, public opinion in China, Russian economic dependency on China, and the overlap of China's 12-Point Position with Zelensk's views. The podcast highlights China's evolving stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, intellectual freedom amidst conflict, China's strategic calculations, and its response to the Ukrainian conflict.

01:27:05

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Quick takeaways

China maintains a pragmatic approach in the Ukrainian conflict, stressing peaceful resolution over direct involvement.

China's economic support to Russia weakens the impact of global sanctions, highlighting the complexity of China-Russia relations.

China's 12-point position on Ukraine reflects a delicate balance between respecting sovereignty and strategic flexibility, raising concerns about its effectiveness.

Deep dives

China's Mediating Role in the Ukrainian Conflict

China maintains a pragmatic and cautious approach in the Ukrainian conflict, distancing itself from direct involvement while pushing for a peaceful resolution. The podcast discusses China's perceived pro-Russian neutrality and its impact on relations with the EU.

Introduction

3min

China's Evolving Stance on Ukraine-Russia Conflict

27min

Analysis of the Intellectual Environment Amid Conflict

2min

China-Ukraine Relations and Strategic Calculations

17min

China's Response to Ukrainian Conflict and Foreign Policy Priorities

3min

China's Economic Power and Political Influence

13min

China's Strategic Autonomy and Ukraine's Importance

20min

Closing Remarks and Thanks on Panel Insights

2min

This week on Sinica, a special taping of an online event I moderated on February 22, just two days shy of the second anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The session was titled “The Ukrainian Factor in China’s Strategy,” and it was organized by the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, and featured that organization’s chairperson, Vita Golod; Bartosz Kowalski, senior analyst at the Center for Asian Affairs at the University of Lodz; Lü Xiaoyu of Peking University’s School of International Studies; and Klaus Larres, distinguished professor of history and international affairs, at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.

Please support Sinica by becoming a subscriber at sinica.substack.com. Please note that I have discontinued Patreon, and ask all supporters to help out over on Substack.

2:42 – Introducing the guests

6:19 – Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s meeting with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi

12:19 – What do Ukraine and its allies want from China?

16:59 – What inducements might Ukraine’s Western allies offer China?

21:51 – How has China’s position changed over the course of the last two years?

29:52 – The space for expression of pro-Ukraine voices in China

32:08 – Ukrainian and Chinese popular opinion

36:44 – Does the diplomacy of sanctimony work on a realist power?

48:00 – China’s 12-Point Position

51:48 – Does Russian economic dependency on China translate into leverage?

54:04 – The overlap between China’s 12 points and Zelenskyy’s 10 points

57:42 – How reliable is America as a partner in this election year?

1:08:53 – How will this war end? What compromises are the sides willing to make?

1:21:32 – Lü Xiaoyu’s trip to Ukraine and his meeting with President Zelenskyy

There’s a complete transcript to this episode available at sinica.substack.com.

Sorry, no recommendations this week, but here’s one from me: The new remake of James Clavell’s epic novel Shògun, which is out on Hulu and FX. It’s pretty mind-blowing!

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