FiveThirtyEight Politics Is Trump Losing His Electoral College Advantage?
Sep 23, 2024
As early voting kicks off nationwide, the discussion delves into its predictive power for November's election. Analyzing shifting poll trends reveals potential vulnerabilities for Trump in battleground states. The crew emphasizes the importance of high-quality polling data in navigating electoral dynamics. Down-ballot races could sway presidential electorates, even if their impact is expected to be minimal. They also explore the challenges facing Democratic candidates in critical Senate races, highlighting the intense competition as the election date approaches.
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Early Voting Data Is Misleading
- Avoid using early voting data to predict election outcomes.
- It's minimally predictive, potentially misleading, and lacks stable benchmarks.
Unreliable Comparisons
- Comparing early voting data across elections is unreliable due to changing access.
- The pandemic shifted voting behavior, but the long-term effects are unknown.
Interpreting Early Voting Trends
- Democrats tend to vote early or by mail more than Republicans.
- Early vote data showing a Democratic lead doesn't guarantee an election win.