Swamp Notes Can we keep trusting US economic data?
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Sep 5, 2025 
Erica Groshen, a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and now a senior economics advisor at Cornell, joins Myles McCormick, U.S. economics correspondent for the Financial Times. They dissect the recent dismal jobs report showing only 22,000 new jobs added and discuss its repercussions on the economy. The conversation dives into the political interference affecting economic data, particularly with a controversial new BLS head. There’s also a look at retirement investment shifts in 401(k)s, underscoring how economic changes impact individual planners.
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Jobs Growth Has Nearly Stalled
- The August jobs report showed just 22,000 payroll gains and large downward revisions, signalling a sharp slowdown in job creation.
- Erica Groshen warns the three-month average of 29,000 is essentially zero for the US economy and risks pushing unemployment up.
How Payroll Data Is Produced
- Erica Groshen describes the payroll survey process: over 100,000 employers report payrolls for the pay period containing the 12th of the month.
- She says outputs go through automated checks and she did not see numbers before final release, only the accompanying narrative.
Commissioner Ousted After Bad Numbers
- President Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner followed a disappointing report and public accusations the data were 'rigged'.
- Myles McCormick notes there was no evidence of tampering despite the president's personal outrage.