Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shares his pressing concerns about the four-month countdown until U.S. election dynamics shift. Journalist Veronika Melkozerova recounts her riveting encounter with Zelensky in Kyiv as he unveils his ambitious "Victory Plan." The duo discusses NATO support, Ukraine's aspirations for membership, and the geopolitical ramifications of military aid amid rising tensions with Russia. Together, they ponder the implications of U.S. political shifts on European security and defense, highlighting the urgency of diplomatic efforts.
Zelensky's lobbying in the U.S. focuses on obtaining crucial military aid and NATO support as political uncertainty looms ahead.
European nations exhibit divided opinions on military assistance for Ukraine, complicating Zelensky's efforts to secure robust backing from allies.
Deep dives
Zelensky's Urgent Diplomatic Push
Zelensky's recent trip to the U.S. is aimed at solidifying support for Ukraine as it nears a crucial period in its conflict with Russia. With only four months left until a potential shift in U.S. presidential leadership, he is seeking significant military assistance and a clear stance on Ukraine's NATO aspirations. His victory plan emphasizes deep strikes into Russian territory with Western missiles, signaling Ukraine's desire for more impactful support. The outcome of this diplomatic effort could shape Ukraine's strategy moving forward, particularly given the uncertain political landscape in the U.S.
Battling European Hesitation
European nations are divided on further military support for Ukraine, complicating Zelensky's mission. Although the European Parliament recently voted overwhelmingly to lift restrictions on strikes within Russia, key players like Germany remain cautious due to fears of Russian retaliation. This ambivalence calls into question Ukraine's prospects for achieving substantial military backing from its European allies. Continued skepticism reflects concerns among European leaders about the ramifications of escalating the conflict and the unpredictability of Russia's responses.
Military Requirements vs. Political Will
Zelensky's victory plan outlines critical requirements for Ukraine's continued defense, primarily the acquisition of long-range weapons to counter Russian aggression. Despite strong Ukrainian desires for a shift in U.S. policy regarding these arms, concerns in Washington about the risk of escalation remain prevalent. The Biden administration's logistical constraints and fears of a nuclear response from Russia complicate Ukraine's calls for rapid military enhancements. As the frontlines face pressure, the urgency for a clear commitment from allies becomes increasingly pronounced.
The Uncertainty of Future Alliances
The potential election of Donald Trump in the U.S. raises questions about future support for Ukraine, prompting anxiety among European leaders. Many European countries are closely monitoring U.S. political developments, fearing a reversal in American backing. While European defense budgets are increasing, significant gaps remain in collective military capabilities. This leaves Ukraine dependent on consistent U.S. support, making Zelensky's current efforts not just a matter of immediate military strategy but also a quest for long-term security assurances.
Volodymyr Zelensky has just four months. That’s the time left until U.S. President Joe Biden leaves office. After that, who knows what’s going to happen. And that means uncomfortable questions for the EU, too.
This week’s edition of EU Confidential tracks the Ukrainian president’s recent journey to the U.S. We start off in Kyiv, where POLITICO’s Veronika Melkozerova recounts meeting Zelensky as he gave reporters a sneak peek of his “Victory Plan.” (Security is tight — even lipstick needs a close check.)
Then we unpack his lobbying mission to the White House and the U.N. General Assembly. Jan Cienski, POLITICO senior policy editor; Dave Brown, defense editor at POLITICO US; and Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia at International Crisis Group join host Sarah Wheaton to discuss the political and strategic debates playing out in the U.S. and the EU.
We also listen in on Suzanne Lynch’s interview with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. For more, subscribe to POLITICO’s Global Playbook newsletter.
Next, we continue our Berylamont Who’s Who series with mini-profiles of commissioners-designate Raffaele Fitto (Meloni’s man in Brussels) and current EVP Maroš Šefčovič (the EU’s Mr. Fix-it).