The Town with Matthew Belloni The Ellison Empire Strikes Back: Paramount Goes Hostile
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Dec 9, 2025 Peter Supino, a savvy analyst from Wolfe Research, joins to dissect Paramount's hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. He compares the financial structures of both Paramount and Netflix's offers, revealing key differences. The conversation delves into synergies, regulatory hurdles, and even the political implications involving figures like Trump. Peter ultimately argues for Paramount's upper hand, citing favorable regulatory conditions. The chat wraps up with a fun prediction about the upcoming Golden Globes!
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Hostile All-Cash Bid Upsets Netflix Deal
- The Ellisons launched a hostile $30-per-share all-cash bid for Warner Bros Discovery days after Warner agreed to a Netflix deal.
- The bids differ mainly on whether the low-value cable networks (the 'global networks' or 'Shitco') are included and how much they're worth per share.
How Netflix's Offer Breaks Down
- Netflix's offer was $27.75 per share: $23.25 cash plus $4.50 in Netflix stock and excludes the global networks division.
- Analysts estimate the spun-off networks' value at roughly $1–$3 per WBD share, which determines whether Netflix's proposal is comparable.
Paramount's $30 Offer Addresses Board Fears
- Paramount offered $30 per share in cash for the entire company, including the networks, and matched Netflix's breakup fee protections.
- The Ellison bid also includes backing from Ellison family and RedBird with no financing contingency to address board concerns.