Small caps are cheap. Why do they keep getting cheaper!?
Oct 4, 2023
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This podcast explores why small cap indices continue to get cheaper despite their attractive prices. It discusses the valuation difference between small caps and large caps, the outperformance of the S&P 600 over the Russell 2000, the challenges faced by small caps in funding costs and interest rates, the impact of profit margins and private equity on small caps, the growth limitations of large companies, and the changing importance of companies and the upper limit of company growth.
Small caps have been underperforming large caps for the past 20 years, except for a period up to 1999.
Investing in small caps requires careful consideration of their unique characteristics and risks, but also offers opportunities for active managers to find bargains and benefit from potential inefficiencies.
Deep dives
Small caps struggling to gain momentum
Small cap indices have been underperforming large caps for the past 20 years, except for a period up to 1999. While small caps appear cheap by many measures, they come with their own challenges, including volatility and weak balance sheets. Factors like size and illiquidity can impact performance and valuations of small caps.
Historical performance of small caps
Historically, small caps have often outperformed large caps over the long term. However, there are debates about whether this trend will continue or if it may manifest in different ways, such as through the impact of illiquidity. Currently, the valuation of US small caps, represented by the S&P 600 index, appears comparatively low.
The case for small cap potential
The S&P 600 index, representing US small caps, has a significantly lower forward price-to-earnings ratio compared to the S&P 500 index for large caps. Even when comparing the S&P 600 to its own historical valuations, it appears to be at a relatively low point. Mean reversion and the potential for a rally or compression in the valuation differential are factors that may attract investors to small caps.
The considerations and challenges of investing in small caps
Investing in small caps requires careful consideration of the unique characteristics and risks associated with these companies. Factors such as profitability, liquidity, and credit conditions can significantly impact their performance. Small caps tend to have lower profit margins and may be more vulnerable to economic conditions and interest rate changes. However, small caps also offer opportunities for active managers to find bargains and benefit from potential inefficiencies.
Smaller companies look much better value than the giants of the S&P 500. Yet despite attractive prices, small cap indices continue to get cheaper, further widening the gap. Is bigger really better?
We look at what's holding small caps back and if they are about to gain momentum.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How big can one company grow?
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
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