Bankless 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026: $1M BTC, Wall Street Onchain & ETF Takeover | Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise
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Dec 16, 2025 
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, and Ryan Rasmussen, DeFi analyst, share their bold predictions for the crypto landscape by 2026. They discuss the possibility of Bitcoin hitting $1M and explore the fading relevance of the four-year cycle. The duo also anticipates ETFs consuming over 100% of new crypto supply, the rise of crypto equities over tech stocks, and on-chain vaults revolutionizing asset management. Plus, they highlight stablecoins as potential scapegoats for economic woes and the imminent impact of the Clarity Act on ETH and SOL.
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Four-Year Cycle Is Losing Its Grip
- The classic Bitcoin four-year halving/boom cycle is breaking as institutional forces dominate price drivers.
- Matt Hougan sees a new multi-year institutional adoption cycle replacing the old retail-driven rhythm.
Bitcoin Getting Less Volatile Than Big Tech
- Bitcoin's volatility is declining while some mega-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA have increased volatility.
- Ryan Rasmussen argues this trend will remove an allocation excuse from conservative institutions.
ETFs Could Outbuy New Crypto Supply
- ETFs are on track to absorb more than 100% of new issuance for BTC, ETH, and SOL as flows ramp.
- Matt Hougan highlights advisor adoption, slow TradFi rollout, and historical ETF ramp patterns as drivers.