The Hard Limits of Cyber War and Subversion Operations
Jul 2, 2024
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Lennart Maschmeyer, a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, dives into the murky world of cyber warfare and subversion operations. He challenges popular narratives around Russia's Hybrid War, emphasizing the limits of such tactics and their often overestimated effectiveness. Maschmeyer highlights historical examples, like the Prague Spring, to illustrate how covert influences can falter. He also warns about the repercussions of disinformation in democracies, stressing that these operations, while subtle, have far-reaching implications in our modern geopolitical landscape.
Subversion strategies rely heavily on secrecy and exploitation of vulnerabilities, yet often fail to achieve long-term political change.
Case studies like Ukraine highlight how covert operations can disrupt but are ineffective at altering public sentiment or strategic objectives.
The effectiveness of cyber operations is limited and cannot substitute for traditional military strategies, underscoring the need for realistic capabilities assessment.
Deep dives
Defining Subversion and Its Mechanisms
Subversion is characterized not by the goals it aims to achieve but by the methods it employs, specifically secrecy and indirect manipulation. This involves infiltrating adversarial societies to exploit vulnerabilities and gain influence without drawing attention to the operation. Dan mentions that traditional methods involve undercover spies using deception to manipulate institutions internally, while modern subversion includes technology-driven approaches, like cyber operations. Ultimately, both methods share the core strategy of finding and exploiting existing weaknesses within an adversary's system.
The Ineffectiveness of Subversion in Recent Conflicts
The case of Ukraine is presented as a lens through which to examine the limits of subversion strategies, as Russia's attempts to alter Ukraine's political direction through covert operations largely failed. Despite extensive efforts to disrupt Ukraine's pro-Western trajectory, including cyber operations and bribery, these actions did not succeed in altering public sentiment or policy direction. Instead, they culminated in a military escalation which highlights the inadequacy of subversion as a standalone tactic in achieving strategic goals. This pattern suggests that while subversive techniques can generate temporary advantages, they often fall short of producing long-term political changes.
The Subversion Trilemma
The concept of subversion's trilemma outlines three interrelated constraints: speed, intensity of effects, and control, where maximizing one typically diminishes the others. This need for careful strategy limits the effectiveness of subversive operations, as acting quickly can lead to discovery and failure. The necessity of maintaining secrecy complicates the ability to exert control over manipulated systems, often leading to unpredictable and weak outcomes. Thus, while subversion may appear attractive in theory, its practical application reveals significant obstacles in achieving decisive results.
Historical Perspectives on Subversive Operations
Subversion has been a tool of statecraft for centuries, increasingly gaining traction after World War II as direct military confrontation became more costly. Historical case studies, such as the Soviet Union's efforts during the Prague Spring, showcase how military force often accompanies failed subversive strategies when objectives are not met. The failures witnessed in these historical examples—often due to overestimation of propaganda's influence—demonstrate that subversion can easily misfire, leading to counterproductive outcomes. Ultimately, this reflection underscores the enduring relevance of understanding subversion's limitations in modern geopolitical contexts.
The Future of Cyber Operations and Strategic Thinking
Cyber operations are increasingly viewed through the lens of risk and effectiveness, balancing potential disruption against traditional military forces. While cyber tactics can cause significant disruptions, particularly in critical infrastructure, they should not be likened to traditional military strikes due to their inherent limitations. An example is Stuxnet, a cyber operation viewed as groundbreaking, which still faced considerable constraints and prompted a return to conventional methods for achieving strategic goals. This points to the need for realistic interpretations of cyber capabilities, emphasizing that, while they play a role in modern conflict, they do not replace the efficacy of direct military action.
Influence campaigns, both subtle and unsubtle, are as old as statecraft. Agencies like the CIA, KGB, and Israel’s Mossad have all attempted to force friends and rivals to change. It doesn’t work as often as you’d think. Subversion campaigns are often so secretive that their effectiveness is hard to quantify. But Lennart Maschmeyer decided to try.
Maschmeyer is on this episode of Angry Planet to tell us all about the limits of cyber war and subversion operations. It’s the subject of his new book Subversion: From Covert Operations to Cyber Conflict. Maschmeyer is a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich and his book is a deep look at what works and what doesn’t when countries try to influence each other. It throws cold water on Russia’s much-hyped “Hybrid War” and the idea of cyber Pearl Harbor.
