The podcast looks ahead at the potential impact of the upcoming 2024 elections around the world, including in Taiwan, India, Britain, the European Union, and the United States. They discuss concerns about the effectiveness of the American Constitution and potential state crises if Trump is reelected. They also explore the possibility of collapse and necessary change in an order, the rise of right-wing populists in upcoming European elections, the shifting politics in Europe and the US, Ukraine's election delay amidst conflict, and the relationship between elections and democracy in Russia.
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Quick takeaways
The upcoming US election represents a constitutional juncture and could either result in a continuation of the existing system or a significant change in the constitutional framework.
The Taiwanese presidential election balances the discussion of national issues and domestic policy, determining Taiwan's internal governance and its relationship with China and the United States.
India's general elections will shape the country's geopolitical positioning and its ambition for multi-alignment, enabling strategic relevance in the Indo-Pacific region.
Deep dives
US Election and Constitutional Juncture
The upcoming US election is seen as more than just a regular election. Many speculate that it represents a constitutional juncture for the country. The potential re-election of Donald Trump is seen as a test for the effectiveness and relevance of the American Constitution in the 21st century. Critics argue that the current constitutional structure, including the equal representation of states in the Senate, may no longer be suitable for the modern political landscape. The election is seen as a pivotal moment that could result in either a continuation of the existing system or a significant change in the constitutional framework.
Taiwan's Election and Geopolitical Implications
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan holds significant strategic implications, particularly in relation to China. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintains that Taiwan's independence is a reality that no longer needs to be explicitly fought for. On the other hand, the Kuomintang (KMT) argues that Taiwan is organically part of a broader Chinese polity. The election represents a delicate balance between discussing the national issue and focusing on domestic policy. The outcome of the election will have consequences for both Taiwan's internal governance and its relationship with China and the United States.
India's General Election and Geopolitical Positioning
India is set to have general elections in April and May, and it is widely predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will remain in power. Modi's administration has not only influenced the Indian economy but also shaped the country's geopolitical positioning. India aims to make the most of tensions between China and the United States, as well as strengthen ties with both Russia and the West. This approach, termed 'multi-alignment,' allows India to remain strategically relevant and influential in the Indo-Pacific region. While the character of Indian politics may change, the underlying geographical and geopolitical factors continue to shape the country's trajectory.
European Elections and the Rise of Right-wing Populism
Various European countries, including Austria and Portugal, are holding elections this year, with the EU parliamentary elections scheduled for June. Right-wing populism is on the rise in Europe, and these elections are expected to see increased support for right-wing populist parties. The potential shift towards right-wing populism at the EU level raises questions about the coherence of a right-wing European project and its implications. However, it is essential to recognize that European politics has always had conservative elements, and the rise of right-wing populism may represent a return to its historical roots rather than a fundamental rupture.
Ukraine's Election Delay Amidst War
Ukraine was slated to hold presidential elections this year, but they have been delayed due to the ongoing war with Russia. With the country under immense stress, conducting elections is challenging, given the displacement of millions, the struggling economy, and the dependence on foreign aid. The war has a significant impact on Ukraine's political and economic trajectory, and the decision to defer the elections reflects the realities on the ground. While the war continues, the delay raises questions about the relationship between war and democracy, as well as the future of democratic coherence in Ukraine.
In the coming year, a record number of elections will be held around the world, including in Taiwan, India, Britain, the European Union, and the United States. Adam and Cameron look ahead at 2024 and specifically at the potential impact of these elections.
