135. 2024: A pivotal year for the Energy Transition in China - Jun24

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Jun 3, 2024

David Fishman, an expert in China's Energy Transition, discusses the rise of renewables and coal use in China, the impact of command-and-control measures vs market forces, and the country's progress in wind, solar, batteries, and EVs. The podcast aims to debunk cliches about China's energy transition and highlights the drivers behind it, such as human capital and energy security. Fishman suggests China may have already reached peak emissions, signaling a positive shift away from coal and fuels.

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INSIGHT

China's Energy Pilot

China's energy transition is complex, with coal and renewables rising simultaneously.
A national strategy guides this transition, despite mixed signals.

INSIGHT

China's Holistic Energy Strategy

China's energy policy intertwines industrial strategy, geopolitics, and domestic choices.
This approach links domestic industry growth with international relations.

INSIGHT

Market Forces in China's Renewables

China's renewable energy growth is shifting from government-led to market-driven.
Renewable generators now build projects based on market profitability.

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In April, we did Ep129 Minutes about China and announced the interview with a real expert. Here it is.
With David Fishman, an American based in Shanghai, we dig deep into China’s Energy Transition. We try to reconcile the rise of renewables and the rise of coal use. We try to decipher what is decided locally and nationally. We investigate what is the result of command-and-control measures vs market forces. We cover wind, solar, batteries, EVs. Our goal is not to give good points or bad points, our mission is to share with our listeners the fascinating but complex picture of what is happening in China. And we debunk a lot of the cliches that we read in the Western media.
To paraphrase Churchill: “A riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma”.
As the US and the EU are becoming more and more wary and protectionist in relation to China’s progresses in clean technologies, we try to stay neutral when it comes to subsidies, “overcapacity” and real advances made by China Inc.
Beyond those cliches, we talk about human capital and the fundamental concern about energy security which are powerful drivers boosting the Chinese energy transition. In David’s opinion, China is turning the corner on Coal and Fuels, and we might already have seen peak emissions. And we like that!

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We thank Amundi for suppiorting our show.

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David Fishman is an economic consultant at the Lantau Group specializing in the Chinese power sector. His work includes regulatory and commercial intelligence for Chinese nuclear power, solar, wind, and distributed energy markets. His specific experience includes Chinese power market and policy intelligence and forecasting, solar and wind pricing forecasts, renewable asset transactional due diligence, China business matchmaking, and green power procurement planning and execution for multinationals with factories in China. Check David Fishman on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-electricity-2023-statistics-summary-david-fishman-mknic?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via