Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 4th, 2025
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Sep 4, 2025 Monica Guerra, Head of US Policy at Morgan Stanley, dives into President Trump's tariff regime and its economic implications. She discusses how recent tariff policies can impact the budget deficit and the rising revenue from tariffs. Guerra emphasizes the complex relationship between government actions and market behavior, highlighting consumer sentiment and resilience in various sectors. The conversation also touches on the economic landscape shaped by these policies and their effects on small businesses and overall market stability.
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K-Shaped Economy And Quality Focus
- Omar Aguilar sees a K-shaped recovery where high earners and asset owners drive growth while lower-income consumers lag.
- He expects deceleration and emphasizes companies with sustainable earnings and strong balance sheets.
Favor Balance Sheet Strength
- Omar Aguilar advises investors to favour companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable earnings when growth decelerates.
- He recommends staying disciplined, diversified, and invested rather than trying to be a hero.
Corporate Credit Versus Sovereign Risk
- Omar Aguilar notes corporate credit spreads remain tight, signalling disciplined corporate balance sheets post-pandemic.
- He contrasts that with rising government deficits and volatility at the long end of the yield curve.