#975 - Is the Most Hated Sector Finally Getting Some Love? with Jesse Felder
Feb 15, 2024
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Jesse Felder, founder of Felder Investment Research, discusses recent market moves, potential trouble in commercial real estate, and the impact of Nvidia's earnings on the market. They also explore the challenges of tax season for crypto investors and the trend of MAG 7 companies investing in their own customers. Additionally, the barbell investment strategy and the shift towards real assets are analyzed.
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Contradictory signals in the US economy may lead to a hard landing and higher inflation, impacting the markets.
Deep dives
CryptoTax Calculator: Simplifying Crypto Taxes
CryptoTax Calculator is a software platform founded in 2018 by Brother Shane and Tim Burnett. As Coinbase's official global tax partner, the platform focuses on simplifying complex transactions and reporting over 300,000 currencies. They offer a 30% discount with the code RV30 at checkout.
Conflicting Signals in the US Economy
The US economy is currently showing conflicting signals. While there has been talk of a soft landing, the data is starting to contradict that narrative. Retail sales numbers and the CPI report suggest that a hard landing and higher inflation may be possible. These contradictory signals are likely to impact the markets in the coming months.
The Risk of Inflation and the Wage-Price Spiral
The latest CPI report suggests a potential risk of inflation. The rise in super core inflation, which represents underlying inflationary forces, indicates the possibility of a wage-price spiral. This occurs when rising goods inflation leads to wage increases, creating a positive feedback loop that drives further inflation. Factors like de-globalization and demographics contribute to this dynamic.
Long-Term Dynamics and the Inflationary Impact
Long-term dynamics, such as de-globalization and the retirement of the baby boomer generation, contribute to inflationary pressures. The stress on the US labor force and the shrinking workforce relative to the population size impact wages and lead to hot labor markets. These long-term factors are significant and add to the inflationary concerns.
Jesse Fleder, founder of Felder Investment Research, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the recent market moves, the potential trouble facing commercial real estate, and why Nvidia’s earnings next week will have major impacts on the broader market.
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