SH148: Risk of diving fatality is 1:200 000. However, you cannot be a fraction of dead…!

In this episode, we explore how risk is perceived and managed in diving, where emotions, biases, and mental shortcuts often outweigh logic and statistics. Diving fatalities are statistically rare, but those numbers don’t resonate emotionally—our decisions are more influenced by stories and personal experiences. Through real-life examples, we unpack biases like availability bias, outcome bias, and the “turkey illusion,” showing how these distort our understanding of risks. The discussion also highlights strategies for improving risk management, such as using checklists, planning and debriefing effectively, and sharing experiences to enhance collective learning. Join us to rethink how we approach uncertainty and decision-making in diving and beyond.

Original blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/riskoffatality

 

Links: Fatalities COnference Procceedings: https://www.diversalertnetwork.org/files/Fatalities_Proceedings.pdf

Numbers don;t have the same emotional relevance as stories: https://hbr.org/2003/06/storytelling-that-moves-people

Risk of dying from a shark attack: https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/shark-attacks/odds/compare-risk/death/

Behavioural economics: https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/introduction-behavioral-economics/

Prospect theory: https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/prospect-theory/

Video about normalisation of deviance: https://vimeo.com/174875861

4 T’s of risk management: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1612046102342961/permalink/2160646497482916/

How it makes sense for “stupid” decisions: https://www.facebook.com/gareth.lock.5/videos/10155465887236831/

 

Tags: English, Gareth Lock