Erica York, a Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, tackles the intricate implications of proposed tariffs by President-elect Trump on taxpayers and the economy. Kaj Larsen, a former Navy SEAL and Head of Military Investing at Siebert Financial, dives into the unique financial needs of veterans, stressing the importance of tailored financial planning. The discussion encompasses how tariffs could affect lower-income families, while offering insights on investment strategies specifically designed for veterans to navigate their financial futures.
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Quick takeaways
The proposed universal baseline tariff of 10% could generate significant revenue for the U.S. government but would also raise household taxes substantially.
The financial planning needs of veterans require tailored approaches, as they face unique challenges that differ from the general population.
Deep dives
Impact of Universal Tariffs on Tax Revenue
Implementing a universal baseline tariff of 10% could generate approximately $2 trillion in tax revenue for the U.S. government over a span of ten years. However, this increase in revenue would correspond to an average annual tax hike of over $1,200 for households. If the tariff were increased to 20%, the anticipated revenue would reach around $3.3 trillion, raising average household taxes by more than $2,000 annually. These figures highlight a significant imbalance, as the revenue generated would not sufficiently offset the costs associated with proposed tax cuts.
Economic Growth and Tariff Challenges
The potential introduction of tariffs could lead to a decline in economic growth, exacerbated by reactions from foreign markets and businesses. Tariffs may not effectively balance the tax cuts that Congress is considering, resulting in an overall reduction in GDP. The situation poses a risk of financial strain for lower and middle-income households, as they may bear the brunt of increased costs. As such, there is growing concern within the Republican Party about supporting aggressive tariff strategies proposed by the President-elect, given their potential negative economic impact.
Consequences for U.S. Agriculture Due to Tariffs
U.S. agricultural producers have previously felt the adverse effects of tariffs, particularly during trade disputes with China, where significant losses occurred for soybeans, corn, and dairy products. The government intervened with substantial subsidy payments, utilizing roughly 90% of the revenue generated from tariffs to cushion the blow to affected farmers. This reality undermines the notion that tariff revenues could fund tax reforms or other beneficial initiatives, as much of it is redirected to alleviate losses in the agricultural sector. Such financial dynamics raise questions about the overall effectiveness and intentions behind implementing tariffs.
Tax Policy Changes on the Horizon
As numerous provisions from the 2017 tax overhaul are set to expire after 2025, lawmakers are actively strategizing on their future. Key discussions revolve around whether these tax reforms should be extended or made permanent and how to manage funding for any proposed updates. The potential influence of the President on these legislative processes could lead to swift developments once Congress reconvenes. This context emphasizes the critical need for careful planning to sustain beneficial tax structures amidst fluctuating policies.
What would YOU like to hear about on Bloomberg? Help make shows like ours even better by taking our Bloomberg Audience Survey https://bit.ly/48b5Rdn Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Erica York, Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, discusses what proposed tariff's by President-elect Trump could mean for taxpayers. Siebert CIO Mark Malek and Kaj Larsen, Head of Military Investing and Communications, talk about helping veterans with their unique needs to financial planning. Hosts: Tim Stenovec and Emily Graffeo. Producer: Paul Brennan.