On this episode, Tom Davidson joins me to discuss the emerging threat of AI-enabled coups, where advanced artificial intelligence could empower covert actors to seize power. We explore scenarios including secret loyalties within companies, rapid military automation, and how AI-driven democratic backsliding could differ significantly from historical precedents. Tom also outlines key mitigation strategies, risk indicators, and opportunities for individuals to help prevent these threats.

Learn more about Tom's work here: https://www.forethought.org

Timestamps:

00:00:00 Preview: why preventing AI-enabled coups matters

00:01:24 What do we mean by an “AI-enabled coup”?

00:01:59 Capabilities AIs would need (persuasion, strategy, productivity)

00:02:36 Cyber-offense and the road to robotized militaries

00:05:32 Step-by-step example of an AI-enabled military coup

00:08:35 How AI-enabled coups would differ from historical coups

00:09:24 Democratic backsliding (Venezuela, Hungary, U.S. parallels)

00:12:38 Singular loyalties, secret loyalties, exclusive access

00:14:01 Secret-loyalty scenario: CEO with hidden control

00:18:10 From sleeper agents to sophisticated covert AIs

00:22:22 Exclusive-access threat: one project races ahead

00:29:03 Could one country outgrow the rest of the world?

00:40:00 Could a single company dominate global GDP?

00:47:01 Autocracies vs democracies

00:54:43 Mitigations for singular and secret loyalties

01:06:25 Guardrails, monitoring, and controlled-use APIs

01:12:38 Using AI itself to preserve checks-and-balances

01:24:53 Risk indicators to watch for AI-enabled coups

01:33:05 Tom’s risk estimates for the next 5 and 30 years

01:46:50 How you can help – research, policy, and careers

Déjà vu + This Thing I Can't Describe