Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28, 2024

Oct 28, 2024

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, analyzes the rise of bond vigilantes ahead of the election, signaling potential market shifts. Mark McCormick, Global Head of FX Strategy at TD Securities, argues that U.S. equities still promise strong risk-adjusted returns compared to other asset classes. Henrietta Treyz, Director of Economic Policy Research at Veda Partners, reveals that market sentiment is increasingly bullish on a Trump victory, with significant implications for the dollar and overall market dynamics. The discussions reveal how evolving political landscapes shape economic perceptions.

20:53

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Episode guests

Henrietta Treyz

Mark McCormick

Ed Yardeni

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Analysts warn of a potential market correction, as rising bond yields may be acting as a reverse tax on equity valuations.

Political developments surrounding the U.S. elections are expected to create market volatility, impacting both stock and bond markets significantly.

Deep dives

Market Conditions and Stock Valuations

Recent market conditions have led analysts to observe a potential 'melt-up' in stock valuations, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom. Current valuation multiples for the S&P 500 are approaching significant levels, indicating a growing concern about inflated prices potentially leading to a significant correction. Market dynamics are further influenced by rising bond yields, which have been highlighted as a reverse tax on equity valuations that so far have not dampened the ongoing stock rally. Analysts suggest this divergence signals a potential shift in where investment capital is allocated, as the market may favor large-cap stocks over small-cap companies.

Intro

2min

Impact of Rising Bond Yields and Elections

5min

Election Uncertainty and Market Instability

3min

Market Dynamics and Dollar Outlook

4min

Boeing Updates and Financial Insights

3min

Election Strategies: Swing States and Suburban Voters

5min

Key Economic Challenges and Political Strategies Ahead

2min

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- Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President
- Mark McCormick, TD Securities Global Head of FX Strategy
- Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director - Economic Policy Research

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research says the "bond vigilantes are definitely mounting up" ahead of the election. Mark McCormick of TD Securities says, "The US equity market still offers probably the best risk-adjusted performance relative to other classes." Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners says "the street is even more bullish" on Trump winning the election than the prediction markets.

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