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The Pomp Podcast
#1303 Darius Dale on Interest Rates, Fed, Election Year, Macro Outlook
Jan 31, 2024
22:38
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Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42Macro, talks about the labor market, economics, Federal Reserve, interest rates, election year, and macro outlook. They discuss the current state of the US economy with a focus on the labor market, analyze data points related to the labor market and economic outlook, and debate the probability of a recession. They also discuss interest rates and policy dynamics, and share expectations for the stock market and their analytical approach.
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Quick takeaways
- The labor market in the US is cooling but not crashing, supporting the possibility of a soft landing in the economy.
- Lower turnover and slower wage growth indicate a decline in job changes and favor the projected rate cuts in money markets.
Deep dives
Labor Market and Economic Expansion
The podcast episode discusses the state of the labor market and its impact on the current US economy. The conversation highlights key indicators such as job openings, hires rate, and quits rate to analyze the tightness exhibited in the labor market. Lower turnover in recent quarters is seen as supportive of the economic expansion as it reduces pressure on wages. The episode also touches on payroll growth coming in under expectations, suggesting slower wage growth in the months ahead. Overall, the labor market is observed to be cooling but not crashing, which supports the probability of a soft landing in the economy.
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