The Future of Government Spending with Barry Knapp

How will a Trump White House reshape spending priorities, and what could this mean for markets, inflation, and economic growth in a rapidly evolving global economy?

Barry Knapp has spent spent nearly four decades sharing investment strategy analysis to institutional investors until he launched Ironsides Macro in 2019, offering a weekly subscription analysis on macroeconomic and public policy investment strategy

He joins Jim and Bob on the Futures Edge to unpack critical economic themes, including the ripple effects of fiscal policies, the Federal Reserve’s influence on credit markets, and the growth potential in key sectors such as energy and industrials. They delve into topics like inflation trends, the resurgence of metals in a reflationary environment, the transformative promise of self-driving cars, and the appeal of tax-free treasuries. Barry also shares strategies for navigating a shifting economic landscape, the evolving role of Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty, and the regulatory challenges facing cryptocurrency. This episode provides a sophisticated and actionable perspective on the complexities of today’s markets and the decisions shaping tomorrow’s economy.

Takeaways

-Government receipts are endogenous to growth, while spending is exogenous.

-The current government spending is at 24% of GDP, which is unsustainable.

-Austerity measures could lead to a temporary decline in equities.

-Energy and industrial sectors are poised for growth.

-Inflation is likely to persist due to supply chain issues.

-The Fed's policies have significant impacts on small banks and credit availability.

-Reflation could revive interest in previously overlooked metals.

-Self-driving technology may change the automotive landscape significantly.

-Tax-free treasuries could attract more domestic buyers.

-Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against economic instability.

-Government regulation of cryptocurrency is a complex issue.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Personal Insights

02:56 Government Spending and Economic Policy

06:08 Market Reactions and Fiscal Responsibility

08:58 Equity Markets and Future Predictions

11:55 Sector Analysis and Investment Opportunities

15:02 Inflation and Federal Reserve Policies

17:59 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

28:47 Understanding Inflation Metrics and Market Volatility

30:06 The Future of Metals in a Reflationary Economy

34:12 The Impact of Self-Driving Cars on the Automotive Industry

36:17 Exploring Tax-Free Treasuries and Market Dynamics

38:48 Investment Strategies in a Changing Economic Landscape

41:10 Bitcoin: A Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty

50:46 The Role of Government in Cryptocurrency Regulation