320. Riding Out a Recession in Commercial Real Estate

Key Takeaways:

Economic Uncertainty: There are potential signs of a recession, with five major economic forces potentially suppressing US economic growth through 2025-2026.

Commercial Real Estate Outlook: The market is unpredictable, with potential both positive and negative impacts across different asset classes (retail, office, multifamily, industrial).

Investment Strategy Advice:

Don't make decisions based on fear

Look at investments with a long-term perspective (5+ year horizon)

Keep cold calling and networking

Focus on buying good assets

Business Approach: Treat commercial real estate as a professional business, not a hobby. Use professional services like property managers and brokers.

Current Challenges:

High construction costs

High interest rates

Potential economic slowdown

Reduced immigration

Growing US federal deficit

Practical Tip: For flex space, consider renovating existing properties rather than building from ground up due to current economic conditions.