Rebel Capitalist News Did Rate Cuts Just Get Canceled?!
Dec 10, 2025
Unexpected job openings jump in the latest JOLTS data leave markets reacting nervously. The breakdown of vacancies against unemployment reveals historical recession risks. Concerns rise as hiring and quitting stall, hinting at a potential freeze in the labor market. Insights from Goldman Sachs highlight discretionary spending patterns linked to recessions. A dive into travel and leisure sectors reveals early signs of consumer weakness. The discussion also emphasizes the unpredictable nature of Fed cuts, referencing historical pauses and inflation dynamics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
JOLTS Show Mixed Labor Signals
- The JOLTS report surprised markets by showing job openings rising while quits plunged, creating mixed hot-or-cold signals about labor strength.
- George Gammon warns one noisy data point shouldn't be overinterpreted; the trend and context matter more.
Vacancy–Unemployment Threshold Matters
- There are periods when unemployed people exceed job openings, which historically aligns with recessions.
- Gammon highlights that crossing that vacancy/unemployment threshold is a classic warning sign, though JOLTS is noisy.
Hires And Quits Point To A Frozen Market
- Declines in hires and quits suggest labor-market freezing, which undermines expectations of near-term aggressive Fed easing.
- Gammon criticizes the notion that falling job counts are harmless because of migrant flows, calling that argument implausible.