Yaroslav Trofimov, WSJ’s chief foreign affairs correspondent, delves into the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. He discusses the rise of rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani and his controversial journey from insurgent to key political figure. The conversation reveals how regional dynamics are shifting amidst this power change, and Trofimov highlights the complexities of alliances among international players like Russia and Turkey. The future of Syria remains uncertain, but a call for moderation emerges among rebel factions.
The rapid fall of Assad's regime highlights a significant shift in loyalty within the military and diminished support from external allies.
Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani's emergence as a key player signifies a potential moderation in governance amidst a fragmented power structure in Syria.
Deep dives
The Fall of Assad and Its Immediate Impact
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime after 13 years of civil war represents a significant and historic shift in Syria. Celebrations erupted on the streets of Damascus as rebels swiftly took control of the capital, marking an end to a long period characterized by violence, oppression, and brutality. The swift nature of this takeover, with rebels advancing rapidly through key cities, suggests a lack of loyalty among Assad's military and a weakened support structure, particularly as key allies like Russia and Iran were distracted by their own conflicts. This change in power dynamics raises pressing questions about Syria's future governance and the potential for either peace or further conflict among rebel factions.
The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its Leadership
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, emerged as a key player in the new political landscape of Syria following Assad's ousting. Jolani's history includes alliances with groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda, though he has moderated his stance over time to focus on national issues rather than global jihadist ideologies. His leadership has been noted for its relatively moderate approach, emphasizing tolerance and respect for minorities as HTS strives to establish governance in Syria. The question remains if Jolani's shift to moderation is genuine or a strategic maneuver to consolidate power amid a changing political landscape.
Geopolitical Repercussions and Future Scenarios
The fall of Assad has significant implications for regional and global power dynamics, with varying consequences for key players such as Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Russia, once thought to be a reliable ally for Assad, appears weakened, while Iran has lost crucial strategic advantages in the region. Conversely, Turkey stands to gain influence with a friendly regime in Damascus, potentially expanding its reach across the Middle East. As for Syria's future, scenarios range from the establishment of a stable, albeit authoritarian regime to a possible resurgence of extremism and continued violence, impacting the millions of displaced Syrians longing for peace and stability.
After decades of brutal dictatorship in Syria, the regime of Bashar al-Assad fell in a matter of days. WSJ’s Yaroslav Trofimov reports on the rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani and how regional players are responding to political change in Syria.