VanEck’s 2024 Crypto Predictions with Matthew Sigel
Dec 12, 2023
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Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, shares bold predictions for the cryptocurrency landscape in 2024. He discusses the potential impact of a recession and future Bitcoin halving on prices. Expectations for Bitcoin hitting new highs, Ethereum’s challenges, and the rise of decentralized exchanges are key highlights. Sigel dives into Solana's growth and the evolving world of stablecoins. With insights on regulatory changes and the future of corporate crypto, his analysis illustrates an exciting year ahead for digital assets.
The arrival of a US recession in 2024 could increase volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
The fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is expected to lead to a significant rally in Bitcoin's price.
Ethereum will outperform tech stocks in 2024, with increased interest in NFTs and Layer 2 solutions.
Deep dives
US recession and Bitcoin ETF predictions
The podcast episode discusses predictions for 2024, including the arrival of a US recession and the launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF. The speaker explains that economic indicators are pointing towards a recession, and this vulnerability could lead to increased volatility in the first half of the year. However, the prediction also states that over $2.4 billion may flow into Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2024, supporting Bitcoin's price. It suggests that the ETF launch could help mitigate the potential impact of the recession on Bitcoin. The speaker also mentions a specific date for Bitcoin's all-time high: November 9th, 2024. They link this prediction to political events and regulatory shifts following the US presidential election. While acknowledging the speculative nature of these predictions, the speaker highlights that they can provide a roadmap for investors to adjust their positioning.
Bitcoin Halving and Bitcoin Miners
The podcast episode covers predictions related to Bitcoin halving and the performance of Bitcoin miners. The speaker predicts an uneventful fourth Bitcoin halving, stating that it will proceed without major forks or missed blocks in April 2024. As a result, unprofitable miners will disconnect, leading to a significant rally in the Bitcoin price. Additionally, the prediction highlights the emergence of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies with improved balance sheets, suggesting that these miners will outperform others in the post-halving period. The speaker also mentions the potential for Bitcoin miners to earn yield by providing security to proof-of-stake blockchains and participating in the remittance market.
Ethereum, Layer 2 Solutions, and NFTs
The podcast episode discusses predictions concerning Ethereum, Layer 2 solutions, and the NFT market. The speaker states that Ethereum will not flip Bitcoin in 2024, but it will outperform tech stocks. The prediction explains that Ethereum's regulatory status and energy intensity make it attractive to quasi-state entities, leading to sponsorship of Bitcoin mining and increased interest in the asset. Regarding Layer 2 solutions, the speaker anticipates Ethereum's optimization through the EIP-4844 upgrade, resulting in the consolidation of dominant Layer 2 players that surpass Ethereum's mainnet in terms of value and usage. The prediction also suggests a rebound in NFT activity, with a focus on top collections, better crypto games, and new Bitcoin-based offerings. Meanwhile, the speaker predicts Binance losing its number one position in spot trading, with contenders like OKX, BIBIT, Coinbase, and BitGet vying for leadership.
Binance's position as the number one spot trading platform may be at risk due to ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
Binance is facing a three-year colonoscopy by the DOJ, leading to concerns over investors' trust in the platform. The prediction is that Binance's market share may decrease as investors opt for platforms with more regulatory clarity, such as Coinbase.
Stablecoin market cap is expected to reach an all-time high, with USDC potentially surpassing Tether.
Total value of stablecoins on chain is predicted to exceed $200 billion. The expectation is that new regulations in Europe will lead to the launch of regulated stablecoins, and there will be an increased preference for USDC over Tether due to institutional adoption and potential enforcement actions against tether.
In today’s episode, Matthew goes over VanEck’s 15 hottest 2024 crypto predictions report. Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck and has been since 2021.
