Jonah Goldberg invites Frederick Kagan, Director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, to discuss conflicts between Israel and Hamas, Russia and Ukraine, and how the Biden administration should approach Iran and China. They also examine the potential impact of the 2024 election on American foreign policy and learn from history about modern warfare.
Cutting off aid to Ukraine would be catastrophic for the United States, as it could lead to Russia taking full control of the country and facing potential insurgency, requiring a larger deployment of American troops to counter Russian aggression.
The closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea poses a serious threat to global shipping, disrupting international trade, increasing insurance rates, and potentially setting a worrisome precedent for adversaries like China to exploit similar vulnerabilities.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza highlights the challenges of accurately assessing casualties in asymmetrical warfare, raises concerns about erosion of support for Ukraine, and emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between civilians and fighters.
Deep dives
Importance of U.S. Aid to Ukraine for National Security
Cutting off aid to Ukraine would be catastrophic for the United States. While the trajectory of the situation in Ukraine is currently not favorable, there is hope for progress if Congress passes aid to Israel and Ukraine, along with border security. If Ukraine is left unsupported, Russia could eventually take full control of the country and face a potential insurgency. This would have significant implications for US national security and the defense of Eastern European NATO allies. It would require a larger deployment of American troops and resources to counter Russian aggression, potentially impacting our military capabilities against other global threats like China.
Danger of Red Sea Shipping Choke Point Closure
The closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea poses a serious threat to global shipping. Similar to the impact caused by the temporary blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given ship, the closure of this choke point disrupts international trade and affects the global economy. Attacks on ships in the area lead to increased insurance rates, which are ultimately passed on to consumers. Egypt, heavily reliant on revenue from the Suez Canal, would also suffer economic consequences. While the military task of neutralizing Houthi threats is within the capabilities of the US Navy and Air Force, the Biden administration has been cautious about engaging. However, this restraint may set a worrisome precedent, potentially encouraging other adversaries like China to exploit similar vulnerabilities.
Significance of Israeli-Hamas Conflict and Ukrainian Perception of Aid
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is significant in several aspects. It highlights the challenges of accurately assessing casualties in asymmetrical warfare and emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between fighters and civilians. The casualty numbers provided by Hamas officials should be viewed with skepticism due to their vested interest in shaping the narrative. However, the Israeli approach of prioritizing the safety of IDF forces rather than minimizing civilian casualties has led to higher ratios of civilian deaths. Furthermore, there is concern about the erosion of support for Ukraine among both Democrats and Republicans. While some arguments against providing aid to Ukraine may stem from genuine concerns, others may be driven by political signaling and cultural divisions. It is crucial to recognize the far-reaching implications of abandoning Ukraine and the potential damage to alliances and US credibility in defending its partners.
Israel's Approach in Gaza
Israel's current approach in Gaza is criticized for not leading towards the establishment of a non-Hamas government. The speaker emphasizes the need for a counterinsurgency mindset and building support for a non-Hamas government in order to achieve this goal.
Evaluation of Israel's Conduct
The speaker discusses the claims that Israel's conduct violates the rules of war. While acknowledging the complexities and arguments surrounding the situation, the speaker suggests that it is important for all parties involved to adhere to the standards of international agreements and laws. However, the speaker also highlights that the standards themselves permit a higher degree of violence and collateral damage than many people realize, making it challenging to evaluate specific actions without sufficient information about intended targets and capabilities.
As 2023 draws to a close, Jonah invites Frederick Kagan—director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project—back on The Remnant to explore how we can expect the conflicts between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine to unfold in 2024. They also discuss how the Biden administration should approach Iran and China, what the 2024 election could mean for American foreign policy, and what history can teach us about modern warfare.