Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Seth Carpenter
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Jan 6, 2025 Explore the intriguing economic landscape as experts tackle the forecasting challenges of 2025. Discover how shifting immigration patterns may influence employment data. Delve into the implications of tariffs and currency fluctuations, particularly with the Chinese yuan amidst its real estate turmoil. This conversation highlights the complexities of navigating today's economy with a focus on trends that could reshape the financial future.
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Forecasting Challenges in 2025
- Seth Carpenter discusses the difficulty of forecasting in 2025.
- He highlights potential revisions in employment and inflation data.
Key Economic Policy Factors
- Carpenter emphasizes focusing on trade and immigration policies' macro impact.
- He suggests setting aside fiscal policy and deregulation for 2025 macro analysis.
Market Focus and the Chinese Yuan
- Tom Keene highlights the importance of focusing on market indicators.
- He points out the recent jump in the Chinese Yuan as an important market signal.