#1404 Phil Rosen & Anthony Pompliano on Why Bitcoin & Stocks Are Crashing (And What To Do)
Sep 5, 2024
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Phil Rosen, Co-Founder of Opening Bell Daily, and Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, dive into the reasons behind the recent declines in stocks and bitcoin. They analyze interest rate impacts and the ramifications of proposed capital gains tax hikes. The duo emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging, amidst market volatility. They also critique government inefficiencies, drawing parallels to personal finance challenges, and call for increased competition to improve service quality.
Long-term investors view the current decline in Bitcoin prices as an opportunity to accumulate more, reinforcing its status as a store of value.
Discussions on capital gains tax highlight concerns that increases could deter long-term investments, particularly among wealthier individuals.
Deep dives
Bitcoin's Current Trends and Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a decline, recently hovering around $56,000, which is down 12% over the past six months. Earlier in the year, daily active addresses reached approximately 1.2 million when Bitcoin was priced at $73,000, but this number has since fallen by 30%. Despite the price drop, long-term investors view this as an opportunity to accumulate more at a lower price, reinforcing the notion of Bitcoin as a store of value. The conversation highlights that the active user base doesn’t always reflect in transaction data; holders are also counted as active users because their engagement in Bitcoin reflects their long-term holding strategies.
Stock Market Dynamics and Historical Trends
Historically, September has proven to be the worst month for the S&P 500, with an average loss of 0.7% over the past 75 years. Despite this trend, many investors remain optimistic, as evidenced by a significant increase in stock allocations across various retirement accounts, leading to several record highs in the S&P 500. This points towards a widespread belief that investing consistently in the stock market ultimately yields positive returns over time. The discussion emphasizes that long-term investors should focus on a multi-year timeline, as short-term volatility should not hinder their investment strategies.
Devaluation of the Dollar and Asset Appreciation
The U.S. government consensus on devaluing the dollar is seen as a key reason for the upward trend of financial assets, including real estate and stocks. As the dollar's purchasing power decreases, more dollars are required to purchase the same assets, driving their prices up over time. This trend is evident in both real estate values and stock market performance, suggesting a long-term upward trajectory of approximately 8% annually, despite short-term fluctuations. The dialogue emphasizes the importance of understanding these dynamics rather than attempting to time the market for a quick profit.
Implications of Capital Gains Tax Changes
Recent discussions around capital gains tax, particularly proposals by Vice President Harris, highlight the balance between incentivizing long-term investment and generating tax revenue. The current long-term capital gains tax rate stands at 20%, but there are concerns that increasing this could disincentivize investments, particularly for wealthier individuals who tend to engage in long-term investing. The debate emphasizes that the taxation system is not inherently skewed, but rather reflects the capital available for investments. Any proposed changes should consider not only the potential increased tax revenue but also the broader impact on investment behaviors across different income brackets.
Phil Rosen, the Co-Founder of Opening Bell Daily, and Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss why stocks and bitcoin are down, economic policies for Trump & Kamala, proposed capital gains tax increase, and outlook on asset prices during interest rate cuts.
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