"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg E99: This Era’s Inflection Points with Byrne Hobart | DOGE, Elon, OpenAI
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Nov 30, 2024 
In this discussion, Byrne Hobart, an investor and writer known for his astute economic insights, delves into intriguing topics like the implications of leaked OpenAI emails and the future of government efficiency. He explores the dynamics between tech leaders Elon Musk and Sam Altman, the speculative nature of the tech industry, and the potential of prediction markets. Additionally, he addresses the economic repercussions of tariffs and tax policies under Trump while considering how selection effects influence perceptions of success and the evolving media landscape.
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Government Efficiency and Deflation
- US government payroll is a small part of the deficit, but indirect costs from inefficient regulations are substantial.
- Cutting government expenses is deflationary, which can be harder for central banks to manage than inflation.
OpenAI's Early Days
- Leaked emails reveal OpenAI's early history, including negotiations with Microsoft and a potential merger with Tesla.
- Sam Altman considered an OpenAI crypto offering, which Elon Musk opposed.
Google vs. OpenAI
- OpenAI initially offered employees pay cuts, but then Google tried to poach everyone with higher offers.
- OpenAI gave everyone raises to compete, indicating that someone was taking them seriously.