Why California's high speed rail was always going to blow out
Jun 6, 2024
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Bent Flyvbjerg & Dan Gardner discuss megaproject failures like California's high speed rail. Explore why 99.5% of projects go over budget or time, contrasting success of Sydney Opera House. Dive into challenges and planning errors with insights on project complexity and political opposition
Proper planning, attention to detail, and stakeholder engagement are crucial for mega project success.
Experience plays a vital role in megaprojects; neglecting relevant experience can lead to costly mistakes.
Deep dives
Challenges of California High-Speed Rail Project
The podcast explores the challenges faced by the California high-speed rail project, including significant cost overruns and delays. California's initial $33 billion budget for the project had tripled by 2011, with costs continuing to rise. This project exemplifies common issues seen in mega projects, such as being over time, over budget, or delivering lower benefits than expected.
Importance of Experience in Megaprojects
The podcast emphasizes the critical role of experience in megaprojects like high-speed rail. Ben's research highlights that project leaders often disregard the importance of actual experience in similar projects. The lack of experience in building high-speed rails in the U.S. led to California hiring local companies without prior high-speed rail construction expertise, instead of overseas companies with relevant experience.
Lessons from Successful Megaprojects
The podcast discusses lessons learned from successful megaprojects, such as the Guggenheim Museum Bilbao. Proper planning, attention to detail, and stakeholder engagement are highlighted as key factors for project success. The Guggenheim Museum Bilbao's on-time and under-budget completion, in contrast to the Sydney Opera House's significant cost overruns and delays, demonstrates the importance of meticulous planning and experience in project execution.
99.5 percent of megaprojects are either over time, over budget or have lower benefits than expected. What's going wrong? Today, we look at case studies from California's high speed rail project to the Sydney Opera House to consider the do's and don'ts of ambitious projects.
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