Mike's Minute: Here’s what the Reserve Bank have to do today

I would have thought the NZIER numbers yesterday sealed the deal for the Monetary Policy Committee and today's call.

The NZIER was the last substantive look at the economy, and what it shows is we have real trouble. Quite possibly recessionary trouble.

They think Q3 was certainly flat, if not in contraction. If it is contraction, you can add that to the Q2 contraction and that, once again, is a recession.

How many of these do we want? In the Reserve Bank's case how many do they want, given they can actually do something about it?

They are two particularly poor, if not concerning, parts of the data.

1) More jobs are being cut. So that’s your unemployment rate heading higher still, shattering the idea that we may have reached peak.

2) Inflation expectations are heading north of 3% – remember the band is 1-3%.

The trouble with that is the 3% isn't coming from growth, which is traditionally what you want.

The term for no growth but increasing inflation is stagflation.

We could re-litigate, again, how badly the bank have handled this, how they missed Q2 despite that being their job, how they kept telling us the stimulatory effects of lower interest rates were here, or just about here, or here any day now, and if in fact they were ever here they got swallowed by the councils, power companies and insurances giants.

Anyway, surely 50 basis points is a given.

It isn't of course. There remain those who argue 25 points should do it today and another 25 next month and we can all head off to Christmas, fingers crossed.

My argument today is about more than stats and numbers, it's about the psychology of an economy and a country.

The Government have tried, but largely failed, to jolly us along and to sell us the story of recovery. The Reserve Bank have spectacularly failed.

But they can help today with 50 basis because it says we got it wrong, we missed it, we need to fire this joint up and here is our shot. And it’s a big one.

Go on Christian – be bold. 

It's your second last time. Don't die wondering.

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