Guggenheim Macro Markets

Episode 72: Credit Cycle Check-In

Jul 22, 2025
Tom Hauser, Head of Corporate Credit, and Dan Montegari, Head of Research for Corporate Credit, share their expertise on the current credit cycle. They dive into the complexities of tariff impacts on industry competitiveness and credit quality, revealing insights on the divergence between high yield and bank loan sectors. The discussion also highlights the role of AI in investment strategies and the necessity of strong credit analysis amid market volatility. Tune in for tips on finding value in this challenging landscape!
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

Strong Returns but Diverging Fundamentals

  • Below investment grade credit has had strong returns over the last three years due to high yields and a benign credit environment.
  • Technicals remain robust, but fundamentals show more pressure in senior loans than high yield.
INSIGHT

Credit Quality Divergence

  • High yield credit quality has improved while leveraged loans have more lower quality issuers.
  • Defaults are higher in loans than high yield and are above historical averages for loans.
ADVICE

Assess Tariff Impact in Credit Analysis

  • Analyze each credit's business model, cash flow risks, and tariff effects on inputs and pricing.
  • Reduce exposure to names heavily impacted by tariffs, especially in consumer products and automotive.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app