AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Snipd AI
Topics discussed include risks facing the US economy such as auto strikes, student loan payments resuming, and government shutdown. They explore the concept of a 'soft landing' and credit conditions. They discuss labor hoarding and inflation during recessions. Lastly, they delve into recession triggers and shocks, and mention Taylor Swift's contribution to the economy.
Read more
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- Soft landing optimism tends to coincide with short-term improvements in manufacturing and housing markets, while longer-lasting sectors like credit markets and labor markets show signs of weakness, indicating a potential recession.
- Recessions are typically caused by two main factors: rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and external shocks, especially those related to oil, and multiple small shocks occurring simultaneously can create non-linear dynamics leading to a recession.
Deep dives
Soft landings preceding recessions
When looking at recession history, there is a pattern of optimistic expectations for a soft landing right before a recession hits. This pattern was observed in 1990, 2000, 2007, and 2019. Soft landing optimism tends to coincide with short-term improvements in manufacturing and housing markets, while longer-lasting sectors like credit markets and labor markets show signs of weakness. Current indicators suggest manufacturing is bottoming out, but credit conditions are expected to tighten in the coming months, potentially triggering a recession.
Get the Snipd
podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any
moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share
& Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode